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Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
  • Neil Lee
  • Cornelius Lipp

Abstract

In 2000, Robert Putnam forecast that United States (US) democracy was at risk from the twin challenges of declining civic engagement and rising interpersonal inequality. Sixteen years later, his predictions were vindicated by the election of Donald Trump as president of the US. This paper analyses the extent to which the 2016 election of Donald Trump—and his failed re-election bid in 2020—have been related to levels of social capital and interpersonal inequalities. We posit an alternative: that the rise in votes for Trump has been the result of long-term economic and population decline in areas with strong social capital. This hypothesis is confirmed by the econometric analysis conducted for US counties. Long-term declines in employment and population—rather than in earnings, salaries, or wages—in places with relatively strong social capital propelled Donald Trump to the presidency and almost secured his re-election. By contrast, low social capital and high interpersonal inequality were not connected to a surge in support for Trump. These results are robust to the introduction of control variables and different inequality measures. The analysis also shows that the discontent at the base of the Trump margin is not just a consequence of the 2008 crisis but had been brewing for a long time. Places in the US that remained cohesive but witnessed an enduring decline are no longer bowling alone, they have golfed with Trump and will, in all likelihood, continue to golf with Trumpism or other forms of populism.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Neil Lee & Cornelius Lipp, 2021. "Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 457-481.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cjrecs:v:14:y:2021:i:3:p:457-481.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cjres/rsab026
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Lewis Dijkstra & Hugo Poelman, 2024. "The Geography of EU Discontent and the Regional Development Trap," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 100(3), pages 213-245, May.
    2. Petach, Luke, 2024. "Monopsony in the market for religion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 423-435.
    3. Bert Provan, 2022. "CASE Annual Report 2021," CASE Reports casereport142, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    4. Luise Koeppen & Dimitris Ballas & Arjen Edzes & Sierdjan Koster, 2021. "Places that don't matter or people that don't matter? A multilevel modelling approach to the analysis of the geographies of discontent," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 221-245, April.
    5. Maria Greve & Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich, 2023. "Long‐term decline of regions and the rise of populism: The case of Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 409-445, March.
    6. Diemer, Andreas, 2023. "Divided we fall? The effect of manufacturing decline on the social capital of US communities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120355, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Fan, Di & Ding, Jiayan & Wu, Sihong & Su, Yiyi, 2025. "Firewalls or frontlines: Geopolitical tensions and multinationals' digital technology upgrading," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Sebastien Bourdin & André Torre, 2023. "Geography of contestation: A study on the Yellow Vest movement and the rise of populism in France," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 214-235, January.
    9. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Terrero-Dávila, Javier & Lee, Neil, 2023. "Left-behind vs. unequal places: interpersonal inequality, economic decline, and the rise of populism in the US and Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 18049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Richard Crisp & David Waite & Anne Green & Ceri Hughes & Ruth Lupton & Danny MacKinnon & Andy Pike, 2024. "‘Beyond GDP’ in cities: Assessing alternative approaches to urban economic development," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 61(7), pages 1209-1229, May.
    11. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & You, Zhuoying & Teirlinck, Peter, 2025. "The political extremes and innovation: How support for extreme parties shapes overall and green scientific research and technological innovation in Europe," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(9).
    12. Rafał Gajewski & Robert Knippschild, 2024. "Local policy-making within the multilevel system: A study of governance in peripheral(ised) medium-sized cities undergoing socio-economic transformation in Saxony, Germany and Lower Silesia, Poland," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 61(10), pages 1891-1914, August.
    13. Ming-Lun Chung & Eric M. P. Chiu & Yu Hang KWOK & Ka-wo Fung, 2025. "To bond or bridge: how do populist attitudes intensify the effect of online social capital on political engagement?," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Carolin Ioramashvili & Maryann Feldman & Frederick Guy & Simona Iammarino, 2024. "Gathering round Big Tech: How the market for acquisitions concentrates the digital sector," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 17(2), pages 293-306.
    15. Cerqua, A. & Ferrante, C. & Letta, M., 2021. "Electoral Earthquake: Natural Disasters and the Geography of Discontent," GLO Discussion Paper Series 790, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Adamiak, Czeslaw & Rodriguez-Pose, Andres & Churski, Pawel & Dubownik, Anna & Pietrzykowski, Maciej & Szyda, Barbara & Rosik, Piotr, 2024. "Places that matter and places that don't: territorial revenge and counter-revenge in Poland," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126536, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Giulia Ferrante & Luca Buzzanca & Arsene Perrot, 2025. "Speaking Ourselves Closer: Linguistic Minorities, Social Cohesion and Local Development," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2530, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2025.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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