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The geography of EU discontent and the regional development trap

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  • Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  • Dijkstra, Lewis
  • Poelman, Hugo

Abstract

While in recent times many regions have flourished, many others are stuck —or are at risk of becoming stuck— in a development trap. Such regions experience decline in economic growth, employment, and productivity relative to their neighbours and to their own past trajectories. Prolonged periods in development traps are leading to political dissatisfaction and unrest. Such discontent is often translated into support for anti-system parties at the ballot box. In this paper we study the link between the risk, intensity, and duration of regional development traps and the rise of discontent in the European Union (EU) —proxied by the support for Eurosceptic parties in national elections between 2013 and 2022— using an econometric analysis at a regional level. The results highlight the strong connection between being stuck in a development trap, often in middle- or high-income regions, and support for Eurosceptic parties. They also suggest that the longer the period of stagnation, the stronger the support for parties opposed to European integration. This relationship is also robust to considering only the most extreme Eurosceptic parties or to including parties that display more moderate levels of Euroscepticism.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Dijkstra, Lewis & Poelman, Hugo, 2024. "The geography of EU discontent and the regional development trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 18933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18933
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    2. Milene Tessarin & Ron Boschma & Deyu Li & Sergio Petralia, 2025. "Regional development traps in Europe. A study of occupational trajectories of regions," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2501, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jan 2025.
    3. Rodriguez-Pose Andrés & Dijkstra Lewis & Dorati Chiara, 2025. "Paying for Euroscepticism," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2025-09, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Rodríguez-pose Andrés & Dijkstra Lewis, 2025. "The pursuit of competitiveness and the high stakes of territorial myopia," JRC Research Reports JRC142460, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Rodríguez-Pose Andrés, 2025. "Editorial: Discontent Is Europe’s Main Threat," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 60(2), pages 70-71.
    6. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Federico Bartalucci & Genadiy Rau, 2025. "One Kazakhstan, multiple nations: on a growing regional divide amidst economic dynamism," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 629-651, September.
    7. Schwab Thomas, 2024. "Quo Vadis, Cohesion Policy? European Regional Development at a Crossroads," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 59(5), pages 284-292.
    8. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés, 2025. "Discontent is Europe’s main threat," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127976, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & You, Zhuoying & Teirlinck, Peter, 2025. "The political extremes and innovation: How support for extreme parties shapes overall and green scientific research and technological innovation in Europe," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(9).
    10. Popa Radu & Aliman Mihai, 2025. "Determinants of Adopting Extraordinary Bank Taxes in the Euro Area in the Post-COVID 19 era," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 2993-3006.
    11. Annie Tubadji & Martijn Burger & Don J. Webber, 2025. "Geographies of feeling stuck behind and populist voting in The Netherlands," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 179(1), pages 549-579, August.
    12. Alicia Gómez-Tello & María-José Murgui-García & María-Teresa Sanchis-Llopis, 2025. "Labour productivity disparities in European regions: the impact of agglomeration effects," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(3), pages 1-32, September.
    13. Iwona Kantor-Pietraga & Stefania Koczar-Sikora, 2025. "Development Trajectories of Two Industrial Regions in the EU Due to Different Transformation Paths—The Silesian Voivodeship in Poland and North Rhine–Westphalia in Germany," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-26, January.
    14. Mita Marra, 2025. "Leveraging Entrepreneurship Education in Italy’s Inner Areas: Implications for Regional Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-24, October.
    15. Capello, Roberta & Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés, 2025. "Europe’s quest for global economic relevance: on the productivity paradox and the Draghi report," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127768, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés, 2025. "Forging a sustainable future together: cohesion Policy at its defining moment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 129229, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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