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The Logic of Fear - Populism and Media Coverage of Immigrant Crimes

Author

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  • Couttenier, Mathieu
  • Hatte, Sophie
  • Vlachos, Stephanos
  • Thoenig, Mathias

Abstract

We study how news coverage of immigrant criminality impacted municipality-level votes in the November 2009 "minaret ban" referendum in Switzerland. The campaign, successfully led by the populist Swiss People's Party, played aggressively on fears of Muslim immigration and linked Islam with terrorism and violence. We combine an exhaustive violent crime detection dataset with detailed information on crime coverage from 12 newspapers. The data allow us to quantify the extent of pre-vote media bias in the coverage of migrant criminality. We then estimate a theory-based voting equation in the cross-section of municipalities. Exploiting random variations in crime occurrences, we find a first-order, positive effect of news coverage on political support for the minaret ban. Counterfactual simulations show that, under a law forbidding newspapers to disclose a perpetrator's nationality, the vote in favor of the ban would have decreased by 5 percentage points (from 57.6% to 52.6%).

Suggested Citation

  • Couttenier, Mathieu & Hatte, Sophie & Vlachos, Stephanos & Thoenig, Mathias, 2019. "The Logic of Fear - Populism and Media Coverage of Immigrant Crimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 13496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13496
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    1. Vad media skriver om invandrare påverkar väljare
      by Niclas Berggren in Nonicoclolasos on 2019-04-23 04:12:50

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Milena Djourelova, 2020. "Media Persuasion through Slanted Language: Evidence from the Coverage of Immigration," Working Papers 1177, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski & Jérôme Valette, 2025. "Media Coverage of Immigration and the Polarization of Attitudes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 337-368, January.
    3. Miloš Fišar & Tommaso Reggiani & Fabio Sabatini & Jiří Špalek, 2022. "Media negativity bias and tax compliance: experimental evidence," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(5), pages 1160-1212, October.
    4. Milena Djourelova, 2020. "Media persuasion through slanted language: Evidence from the coverage of immigration," Economics Working Papers 1720, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    5. Megalokonomou, Rigissa & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2023. "The effects of exposure to refugees on crime: Evidence from the Greek islands," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Fišar, Miloš & Reggiani, Tommaso G. & Sabatini, Fabio & Špalek, Jiří, 2020. "Media Bias and Tax Compliance: Experimental Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 12938, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Sekou Keita & Thomas Renault & Jérôme Valette, 2024. "The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 322-362.
    8. Francesco Giavazzi & Felix Iglhaut & Giacomo Lemoli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter," Working Papers 659, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    9. Francesco Giavazzi & Felix Iglhaut & Giacomo Lemoli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter," NBER Working Papers 26825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ghazaryan, Armine & Giulietti, Corrado & Wahba, Jackline, 2022. "Terror headlines and voting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    11. Massimiliano Agovino & Maria Rosaria Carillo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2022. "Correction to: Effect of Media News on Radicalization of Attitudes to Immigration," Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 341-342, December.
    12. Belkıs Şahinoğlu & Neriman Saygılı & Ayşe Muhtaroğulları & Aysin Sinal, 2024. "Implications of media reports of crime for public trust and social support: a conceptual analysis of individuals’ psychological wellbeing," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    13. Giavazzi, Francesco & Lemoli, Giacomo & Rubera, Gaia & Iglhaut, Felix, 2020. "Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter," CEPR Discussion Papers 14455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Nicolás Ajzenman & Patricio Dominguez & Raimundo Undurraga, 2023. "Immigration, Crime, and Crime (Mis)Perceptions," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 142-176, October.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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