IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/igi/igierp/659.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Giavazzi
  • Felix Iglhaut
  • Giacomo Lemoli
  • Gaia Rubera

Abstract

We study the role of perceived threats from cultural diversity induced by terrorist attacks and a salient criminal event on public discourse and voters’ support for far-right parties. We first develop a rule which allocates Twitter users in Germany to electoral districts and then use a machine learning method to compute measures of textual similarity between the tweets they produce and tweets by accounts of the main German parties. Using the dates of the aforementioned exogenous events we estimate constituency-level shifts in similarity to party language. We find that following these events Twitter text becomes on average more similar to that of the main far-right party, AfD, while the opposite happens for some of the other parties. Regressing estimated shifts in similarity on changes in vote shares between federal elections we find a significant association. Our results point to the role of perceived threats on the success of nationalist parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Giavazzi & Felix Iglhaut & Giacomo Lemoli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter," Working Papers 659, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:659
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.unibocconi.it/igier/igi/wp/2020/659.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:diw:diwwrp:dwr8-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christian Dustmann & Kristine Vasiljeva & Anna Piil Damm, 2019. "Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 2035-2091.
    3. Jennifer M. Larson & Jonathan Nagler & Jonathan Ronen & Joshua A. Tucker, 2019. "Social Networks and Protest Participation: Evidence from 130 Million Twitter Users," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(3), pages 690-705, July.
    4. Eric D. Gould & Esteban F. Klor, 2016. "The Long‐run Effect of 9/11: Terrorism, Backlash, and the Assimilation of Muslim Immigrants in the West," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(597), pages 2064-2114, November.
    5. repec:diw:diwwrp:dwr8-7-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Simone Schüller, 2016. "The Effects of 9/11 on Attitudes toward Immigration and the Moderating Role of Education," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 604-632, November.
    7. Martin Halla & Alexander F. Wagner & Josef Zweimüller, 2017. "Immigration and Voting for the Far Right," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(6), pages 1341-1385.
    8. Couttenier, Mathieu & Hatte, Sophie & Vlachos, Stephanos & Thoenig, Mathias, 2019. "The Logic of Fear - Populism and Media Coverage of Immigrant Crimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 13496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Inglehart, Ronald F. & Norris, Pippa, 2016. "Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash," Working Paper Series 16-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    10. Berrebi, Claude & Klor, Esteban F., 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 279-301, August.
    11. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2010. "What Drives Media Slant? Evidence From U.S. Daily Newspapers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 35-71, January.
    12. Getmansky, Anna & Zeitzoff, Thomas, 2014. "Terrorism and Voting: The Effect of Rocket Threat on Voting in Israeli Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 588-604, August.
    13. Cantoni, Davide & Hagemeister, Felix & Westcott, Mark, 2019. "Persistence and Activation of Right-Wing Political Ideology," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 143, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    14. Christian Franz & Marcel Fratzscher & Alexander S. Kritikos, 2018. "German Right-Wing Party AfD Finds More Support in Rural Areas with Aging Populations," DIW Weekly Report, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 8(7/8), pages 69-79.
    15. Andreas Steinmayr, 2021. "Contact versus Exposure: Refugee Presence and Voting for the Far Right," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 310-327, May.
    16. Luigi Curini & Stefano Iacus & Luciano Canova, 2015. "Measuring Idiosyncratic Happiness Through the Analysis of Twitter: An Application to the Italian Case," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 525-542, April.
    17. Henning Finseraas & Niklas Jakobsson & Andreas Kotsadam, 2011. "Did the Murder of Theo van Gogh Change Europeans' Immigration Policy Preferences?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 396-409, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Alesina & Marco Tabellini, 2024. "The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 5-46, March.
    2. Berman, Nicolas & Brey, Björn & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jeremy, 2023. "Panic Politics in the US West Coast," CEPR Discussion Papers 17874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jaschke Philipp & Sulin Sardoschau & Marco Tabellini, 2021. "Scared Straight? Threat and Assimilation of Refugees in Germany," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2136, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    4. Taeyoung Doh & Dongho Song & Shu-Kuei X. Yang, 2020. "Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements," Research Working Paper RWP 20-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. Chen, Shuai, 2022. "Rally Post-Terrorism," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1065, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Pedro Bordalo & Marco Tabellini & David Y. Yang, 2020. "Issue Salience and Political Stereotypes," NBER Working Papers 27194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy, Twitter and financial markets: evidence from social media traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    8. Jaschke, Philipp & Sardoschau, Sulin & Tabellini, Marco, 2021. "Scared Straight? Threat and Assimilation of Refugees in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 14962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Walter Bossert & Andrew E Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2023. "Economic insecurity and political preferences," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 802-825.
    10. Birkholz, Carlo & Gomtsyan, David, 2023. "Immigrant religious practices and criminality: The case of Ramadan," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 90-104.
    11. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Giavazzi & Felix Iglhaut & Giacomo Lemoli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter," NBER Working Papers 26825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Giavazzi, Francesco & Lemoli, Giacomo & Rubera, Gaia & Iglhaut, Felix, 2020. "Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter," CEPR Discussion Papers 14455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Ghazaryan, Armine & Giulietti, Corrado & Wahba, Jackline, 2022. "Terror headlines and voting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    4. Berman, Nicolas & Brey, Björn & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jeremy, 2023. "Panic Politics in the US West Coast," CEPR Discussion Papers 17874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Sekou Keita & Thomas Renault & Jérôme Valette, 2023. "The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 322-362.
    7. Benny Geys & Øystein Hernæs, 2021. "Party leaders and voter responses to political terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 187(3), pages 481-499, June.
    8. Prömel, Christopher, 2023. "Belonging or estrangement—The European Refugee Crisis and its effects on immigrant identity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Frédéric Docquier & Lucas Guichard & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2022. "Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years," CESifo Working Paper Series 10068, CESifo.
    10. Prömel, Christopher, 2021. "Belonging or estrangement: The European refugee crisis and its effects on immigrant identity," Discussion Papers 2021/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Fremerey, Melinda & Hörnig, Lukas & Schaffner, Sandra, 2024. "Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Nicolás Ajzenman & Patricio Domínguez & Raimundo Undurraga, 2021. "Immigration, crime, and crime (Mis)perceptions," Working Papers 53, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    13. Christopher Prömel, 2022. "Belonging or Estrangement – The European Refugee Crisis and its Effects on Immigrant Identity," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1160, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    14. Jakub Lonsky, 2021. "Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 97-139, January.
    15. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2021. "The Refugee Crisis and Right-Wing Populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 14084, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Matti Sarvimäki, 2021. "Managing Refugee Protection Crises: Policy Lessons from Economics and Political Science," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2131, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    17. Walter Bossert & Andrew E Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2023. "Economic insecurity and political preferences," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 802-825.
    18. Alberto Alesina & Marco Tabellini, 2024. "The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 5-46, March.
    19. Zhou, Yang-Yang & Grossman, Guy & Ge, Shuning, 2023. "Inclusive refugee-hosting can improve local development and prevent public backlash," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    20. Betts, Alexander & Flinder Stierna, Maria & Omata, Naohiko & Sterck, Olivier, 2023. "Refugees welcome? Inter-group interaction and host community attitude formation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:659. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.