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Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter

Author

Listed:
  • Giavazzi, Francesco
  • Lemoli, Giacomo
  • Rubera, Gaia
  • Iglhaut, Felix

Abstract

We study the role of perceived threats from cultural diversity induced by terrorist attacks and a salient criminal event on public discourse and voters' support for far-right parties. We first develop a rule which allocates Twitter users in Germany to electoral districts and then use a machine learning method to compute measures of textual similarity between the tweets they produce and tweets by accounts of the main German parties. Using the dates of the aforementioned exogenous events we estimate constituency-level shifts in similarity to party language. We find that following these events Twitter text becomes on average more similar to that of the main far-right party, AfD, while the opposite happens for some of the other parties. Regressing estimated shifts in similarity on changes in vote shares between federal elections we find a significant association. Our results point to the role of perceived threats on the success of nationalist parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Giavazzi, Francesco & Lemoli, Giacomo & Rubera, Gaia & Iglhaut, Felix, 2020. "Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter," CEPR Discussion Papers 14455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14455
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Jaschke Philipp & Sulin Sardoschau & Marco Tabellini, 2021. "Scared Straight? Threat and Assimilation of Refugees in Germany," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2136, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    4. Taeyoung Doh & Dongho Song & Shu-Kuei X. Yang, 2020. "Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements," Research Working Paper RWP 20-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. Chen, Shuai, 2022. "Rally Post-Terrorism," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1065, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Pedro Bordalo & Marco Tabellini & David Y. Yang, 2020. "Issue Salience and Political Stereotypes," NBER Working Papers 27194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy, Twitter and financial markets: evidence from social media traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    8. Jaschke, Philipp & Sardoschau, Sulin & Tabellini, Marco, 2021. "Scared Straight? Threat and Assimilation of Refugees in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 14962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Walter Bossert & Andrew E Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2023. "Economic insecurity and political preferences," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 802-825.
    10. Birkholz, Carlo & Gomtsyan, David, 2023. "Immigrant religious practices and criminality: The case of Ramadan," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 90-104.
    11. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    National elections; Political parties; Text analysis; Social media; Terrorism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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