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Who Voted for Brexit? Individual and Regional Data Combined

Author

Listed:
  • Alabrese, Eleonora

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

  • Becker, Sascha O.

    (Department of Economics,and CAGE (Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy), University of Warwick, CEPR,CESifo, ifo,IZA and ROA)

  • Fetzer, Thiemo

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick & SERC)

  • Novy, Dennis

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, CEPR, CESifo and CEP/LSE)

Abstract

Previous analyses of the 2016 Brexit referendum used region-level data or small samples based on polling data.The former might be subject to ecological fallacy and the latter might suffer from small-sample bias. We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK’s largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question. We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity,low educational attainment, infrequent use of smart phones and the internet,receiving benefits, adverse health and low lifesatisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas.We therefore do not find evidence of ecological fallacy. In addition, we show that prediction accuracy is geographically heterogeneous across UK regions,with strongly pro-Leave and strongly pro-Remain areas easier to predict. We also show that among individuals with similar socioeconomic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave

Suggested Citation

  • Alabrese, Eleonora & Becker, Sascha O. & Fetzer, Thiemo & Novy, Dennis, 2018. "Who Voted for Brexit? Individual and Regional Data Combined," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1172, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cipullo, Davide & Reslow, André, 2019. "Biased Forecasts to Affect Voting Decisions? The Brexit Case," Working Paper Series 364, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    2. Eugene Beaulieu & Kamala Dawar & Lindsey Garner-Knapp, 2019. "Canada-U.K. Free Trade: Balancing Progressive Trade Policies And Economic Benefits," SPP Briefing Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 12(43), December.
    3. Fernanda L. Lopez de Leon & Markus Bindemann, 2019. "Social Effects of the Vote of the Majority: A Field-Experiment on the Brexit-Vote," Studies in Economics 1905, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    4. Eleonora Alabrese & Thiemo René Fetzer, 2018. "Who is NOT Voting for Brexit Anymore?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7389, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Liberini, Federica & Oswald, Andrew J. & Proto, Eugenio & Redoano, Michela, 2019. "Was Brexit triggered by the old and unhappy? Or by financial feelings?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 287-302.
    6. Eugene Beaulieu & Kamala Dawar & Lindsey Garner-Knapp, 2019. "Canada-U.K. Free Trade: Balancing Progressive Trade Policies And Economic Benefits," SPP Briefing Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 12(43), December.
    7. Oliver Bachmann & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Ruben Seiberlich, 2019. "Partisan Bias in Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 7904, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Philipp Harms & Jakob Schwab, 2019. "Depression of the deprived or eroding enthusiasm of the elites: What has shifted the support for globalization?," Working Papers 1912, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    9. Thiemo Fetzer, 2018. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7159, CESifo Group Munich.
    10. Toke Aidt & Felix Grey & Alexandru Savu, 2019. "The Three Meaningful Votes: Voting on Brexit in the British House of Commons," CESifo Working Paper Series 7819, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. Levi, Eugenio & Patriarca, Fabrizio, 2019. "An exploratory study of populism: the municipality-level predictors of electoral outcomes in Italy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 430, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. Fetzer, Thiemo, 2018. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 381, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    13. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin & Wanling Qiu, 2019. "An Economic Topology of the Brexit vote," Papers 1909.03490, arXiv.org.
    14. Aidt, T. S & Grey, F. & Savu, A., 2019. "The Three Meaningful Votes: Voting on Brexit in the British House of Commons," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1979, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregation ; Ecological Fallacy ; European Union ; Populism ; Referendum ; UK;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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