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Did terrorism affect the Brexit vote?

Author

Listed:
  • Bove, Vincenzo

    (University of Warwick)

  • Efthyvoulou, Georgios

    (University of Sheffield)

  • Pickard, Harry

    (University of Sheffield)

Abstract

We contribute to the recent research on Brexit and public opinion formation by contending that the determinants of the referendum results should be evaluated against the background of wider public security concerns. Terrorism has long been regarded as a top concern by the British public, more than in any other European country. Terrorist attacks on UK soil raised voters’ awareness of security issues and their saliency in the context of an EU referendum. We find that locations affected by terrorist violence in their proximity exhibit an increase in the share of pro-Remain votes, particularly for more sensational attacks. Using individual-level data, we show that in the aftermath of terrorist attacks, citizens are more likely to reconsider the security risks involved in leaving the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Bove, Vincenzo & Efthyvoulou, Georgios & Pickard, Harry, 2019. "Did terrorism affect the Brexit vote?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 415, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:415
    as

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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/415-2019_bove.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Sascha O Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy, 2017. "Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 601-650.
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    7. Liberini, Federica & Oswald, Andrew J & Proto, Eugenio & Redoano, Michela, 2017. "Was Brexit Caused by the Unhappy and the Old?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 342, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    8. David Innes & Gemma Tetlow, 2015. "Delivering Fiscal Squeeze by Cutting Local Government Spending," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 36, pages 303-325, September.
    9. Monica Langella & Alan Manning, 2016. "Who voted Leave?," CentrePiece - The Magazine for Economic Performance 479, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Harry Pickard, 2019. "A mailshot in the dark? The impact of the UK government's lea fet on the 2016 EU referendum," Working Papers 2019004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; Security; Terrorism; Voting; Referendum JEL Classification:;

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