IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/poleco/v59y2019icp266-295.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Employment shocks and anti-EU sentiment

Author

Listed:
  • Lechler, Marie

Abstract

Euroscepticism and the rise of populist parties have often been linked to economic insecurity. This paper identifies regional employment changes as causal factors for forming attitudes towards the European Union and voting for eurosceptic parties in European Parliament elections. To do so, I combine industry-specific employment data for roughly 260 European NUTS II regions with individual-level Eurobarometer survey data for the past 20 years and regional voting results. I apply panel data and instrumental variable methods; for the latter I construct a Bartik-style instrument, which predicts employment changes on the basis of regional industry specialization and Europe-wide sector specific employment growth rates. The effect of employment changes on attitudes towards the EU is particularly strong for unemployed and low-skilled workers in regions with a high share of migrants from other European member states, which supports the narrative that ‘losers of globalization’ tend to be more skeptical towards economic and political integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Lechler, Marie, 2019. "Employment shocks and anti-EU sentiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 266-295.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:59:y:2019:i:c:p:266-295
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2019.03.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268018301460
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2019.03.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    2. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    3. Luigi Guiso & Helios Herrera & Massimo Morelli & Tommaso Sonno, 2017. "Demand and Supply of Populism," EIEF Working Papers Series 1703, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Feb 2017.
    4. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    5. Yi Che & Yi Lu & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott & Zhigang Tao, 2016. "Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-039, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Becker, Sascha O. & Egger, Peter H. & von Ehrlich, Maximilian, 2010. "Going NUTS: The effect of EU Structural Funds on regional performance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 578-590, October.
    7. Guiso, Luigi & Herrera, Helios & Morelli, Massimo & Sonno, Tommaso, 2018. "Populism: Demand and Supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 11871, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini & Ian P. Preston, 2013. "The Effect of Immigration along the Distribution of Wages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(1), pages 145-173.
    9. Sascha O Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy, 2017. "Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 601-650.
    10. Hajo G. Boomgaarden & Andreas R. T. Schuck & Matthijs Elenbaas & Claes H. de Vreese, 2011. "Mapping EU attitudes: Conceptual and empirical dimensions of Euroscepticism and EU support," European Union Politics, , vol. 12(2), pages 241-266, June.
    11. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    12. Funke, Manuel & Schularick, Moritz & Trebesch, Christoph, 2016. "Going to extremes: Politics after financial crises, 1870–2014," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 227-260.
    13. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    14. Raul Gomez, 2015. "The Economy Strikes Back: Support for the EU during the Great Recession," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 577-592, May.
    15. George J. Borjas, 2021. "The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 9, pages 235-274, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    17. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2018. "The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 936-953, October.
    18. Vivien A. Schmidt, 2013. "Democracy and Legitimacy in the European Union Revisited: Input, Output and ‘Throughput’," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 61(1), pages 2-22, March.
    19. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    20. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages 324-341, November.
    21. Sascha O. Becker & Peter H. Egger & Maximilian von Ehrlich, 2013. "Absorptive Capacity and the Growth and Investment Effects of Regional Transfers: A Regression Discontinuity Design with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 29-77, November.
    22. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Post-Print hal-02381560, HAL.
    23. Chase Foster & Jeffry Frieden, 2017. "Crisis of trust: Socio-economic determinants of Europeans’ confidence in government," European Union Politics, , vol. 18(4), pages 511-535, December.
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2i9jel1usb85nr2j7tejsaldfu is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Sascha Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy & Sascha O. Becker, 2017. "Who Voted for Brexit?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 03-05, December.
    26. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    27. Giovanni S. F. Bruno, 2005. "Estimation and inference in dynamic unbalanced panel-data models with a small number of individuals," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(4), pages 473-500, December.
    28. Christian Dippel & Robert Gold & Stephan Heblich, 2015. "Globalization and Its (Dis-)Content: Trade Shocks and Voting Behavior," NBER Working Papers 21812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. John Garry & James Tilley, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Factors Conditioning the Impact of Identity on Attitudes towards the EU," European Union Politics, , vol. 10(3), pages 361-379, September.
    30. Osterloh, Steffen, 2011. "Can regional transfers buy public support? Evidence from EU structural policy," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-011, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    31. Steffen Osterloh, 2011. "Can Regional Transfers Buy Public Support? Evidence from EU Structural Policy," Working Papers 169, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    32. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    33. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1divsbu8t888r9vqektjbmlqoa is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 2000. "Demand Shifts, Population Adjustments, and Labor Market Outcomes during the 1980s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 20-54, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter, Julia & Übelmesser, Silke, 2023. "Regional Determinants of Attitudes Towards Immigrants," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277664, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    3. Giray Gozgor, 2020. "The Role of Economic Uncertainty in Rising Populism in the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 8499, CESifo.
    4. Steven J. Bosworth & Dennis J. Snower, 2019. "The Interplay of Economic, Social and Political Fragmentation," CESifo Working Paper Series 7935, CESifo.
    5. Enrique López-Bazo, 2021. "Does regional growth affect public attitudes towards the European Union?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(3), pages 755-778, June.
    6. Barone, Guglielmo & Kreuter, Helena, 2021. "Low-wage import competition and populist backlash: The case of Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03874305, HAL.
    8. Snower, Dennis J. & Bosworth, Steven J., 2021. "Economic, social and political fragmentation: Linking knowledge-biased growth, identity, populism and protectionism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. ,, 2019. "The Interplay of Economic, Social and Political Fragmentation," CEPR Discussion Papers 14111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Giray Gozgor, 2022. "The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 229-246, January.
    11. Andreas Dür & Christoph Moser & Gabriele Spilker, 2020. "The political economy of the European Union," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 561-572, July.
    12. Fornaro, Paolo & Kaihovaara, Antti, 2020. "Microdynamics, granularity and populism: The Finnish case," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Robert Gold, 2022. "From a better understanding of the drivers of populism to a new political agenda," Working Papers 4, Forum New Economy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lechler, Marie, 2018. "Employment Shocks and anti-EU Sentiment," Discussion Papers in Economics 49414, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Crescenzi, Riccardo & Di Cataldo, Marco & Giua, Mara, 2020. "It’s not about the money. EU funds, local opportunities, and Euroscepticism," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Riccardo Crescenzi & Marco Di Cotaldo & Mara Guia, 2019. "It’s not about the money! EU funds, local opportunities, and the Brexit vote," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 149, European Institute, LSE.
    4. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    5. Alessandro Borin & Elisa Macchi & Michele Mancini, 2021. "EU transfers and euroscepticism: can’t buy me love?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 36(106), pages 237-286.
    6. Frédéric Docquier & Lucas Guichard & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2022. "Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years," CESifo Working Paper Series 10068, CESifo.
    7. Chen, Shuai, 2020. "Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism: Evidence from Two Quasi-Natural Experiments in the United States," GLO Discussion Paper Series 652, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2i9jel1usb85nr2j7tejsaldfu is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1divsbu8t888r9vqektjbmlqoa is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Neil Lee & Cornelius Lipp, 2021. "Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 457-481.
    11. Laura Barros & Manuel Santos Silva, 2019. "#EleNão: Economic crisis, the political gender gap, and the election of Bolsonaro," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 242, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Lea Immel & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "Economic Deprivation and Radical Voting: Evidence from Germany," ifo Working Paper Series 336, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. Draca, Mirko & Schwarz, Carlo, 2019. "How Polarized are Citizens? Measuring Ideology from the Ground-Up," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 432, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    14. Fornaro, Paolo & Kaihovaara, Antti, 2020. "Microdynamics, granularity and populism: The Finnish case," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Chen, Shuai, 2019. "Marriage, minorities, and mass movements," Other publications TiSEM 9cb1b11d-12e6-46a8-adca-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Eugenio Levi & Isabelle Sin & Steven Stillman, 2021. "Understanding the Origins of Populist Political Parties and the Role of External Shocks," Working Papers 21_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    17. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    18. Eugenio Levi & Fabrizio Patriarca, 2020. "An exploratory study of populism: the municipality-level predictors of electoral outcomes in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 833-875, October.
    19. Chen, Shuai, 2023. "Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism," IZA Discussion Papers 16642, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Gyongyosi, Gyozo & Verner, Emil, 2018. "Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debtor Conflict, and Political Extremism," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181587, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Snower, Dennis J. & Bosworth, Steven J., 2021. "Economic, social and political fragmentation: Linking knowledge-biased growth, identity, populism and protectionism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    22. Giordani, Paolo E. & Mariani, Fabio, 2022. "Unintended consequences: Can the rise of the educated class explain the revival of protectionism?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European integration; Regional employment; EU attitudes; European Parliament elections; EU migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:59:y:2019:i:c:p:266-295. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.