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Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?

Author

Listed:
  • Yi Che
  • Yi Lu
  • Justin R. Pierce
  • Peter K. Schott
  • Zhigang Tao

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Che & Yi Lu & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott & Zhigang Tao, 2016. "Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-039, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-39
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.039
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2016/files/2016039pap.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gancia, Gino & Ponzetto, Giacomo A.M. & Ventura, Jaume, 2020. "A theory of economic unions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 107-127.
    2. Costa, Francisco Junqueira Moreira da & Marcantonio Junior, Angelo & Castro, Rudi Rocha de, 2018. "Stop suffering! Economic downturns and pentecostal upsurge," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 804, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    3. Draca, Mirko & Schwarz, Carlo, 2019. "How Polarized are Citizens? Measuring Ideology from the Ground-Up," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1218, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    4. Christian Dippel & Robert Gold & Stephan Heblich & Rodrigo Pinto, 2017. "Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking the Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters," CESifo Working Paper Series 6816, CESifo.
    5. Laixun Zhao, 2019. "Through Trade Wars, East Asians Finally Learning to Cooperate with Each Other?," Discussion Paper Series DP2019-10, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    6. Blanchard, Emily & Bown, Chad P. & CHOR, HAN PING DAVIN, 2019. "Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14091, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Rodrigo R. Soares & Gabriel Ulyssea, 2018. "Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 158-195, October.
    8. Anna Maria Mayda & Giovanni Peri & Walter Steingress, 2018. "The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States," NBER Working Papers 24510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    10. Thorbecke, Willem, 2018. "The exposure of U.S. manufacturing industries to exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 538-549.
    11. Laura Barros & Manuel Santos Silva, 2019. "#EleNão: Economic crisis, the political gender gap, and the election of Bolsonaro," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 242, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Emily Blanchard & Chad P. Bown & Davin Chor, 2020. "Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8587, CESifo.
    13. Lechler, Marie, 2018. "Employment Shocks and anti-EU Sentiment," Discussion Papers in Economics 49414, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    14. Colantone, Italo & Crinò, Rosario & Ogliari, Laura, 2019. "Globalization and mental distress," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 181-207.
    15. Draca, Mirko & Schwarz, Carlo, 2019. "How Polarized are Citizens? Measuring Ideology from the Ground-Up," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 432, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    16. Timini, Jacopo & Conesa, Marina, 2019. "Chinese Exports and Non-Tariff Measures: Testing for Heterogeneous Effects at the Product Level," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(2), pages 327-345.
    17. THORBECKE, Willem, 2016. "China's Electronics Exports, the Renminbi, and Exchange Rates in Supply Chain Countries," Discussion papers 16088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Barbara Dluhosch, 2018. "Trade, Inequality, and Subjective Well-Being: Getting at the Roots of the Backlash Against Globalization," LIS Working papers 741, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Voting; Elections; Import Competition; Normal Trade Relations; World Trade Organization;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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