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Relative Prices and Hysteresis: Evidence from US Manufacturing

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  • Campbell, Douglas L.

Abstract

A central tenet of economics is that prices matter. A corollary is that in a world with sunk costs, historical prices can affect current economic outcomes. There exists a large theoretical literature on exchange rate hysteresis, but recent empirical treatments are scarce. To fill the gap, I employ new measures of real exchange rates (RERs) to study the impact of large, temporary movements in relative prices on the US manufacturing sector. To identify a causal impact of RER movements on manufacturing, I test whether sectors more exposed to international trade respond differently when relative prices appreciate. I also compare the US experience to Canada’s in the mid-2000s, when high oil prices and a falling US dollar led to an equally sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar. I find that temporary RER shocks have a surprisingly persistent impact on employment, output, and productivity in relatively more open manufacturing sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Campbell, Douglas L., 2020. "Relative Prices and Hysteresis: Evidence from US Manufacturing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:129:y:2020:i:c:s0014292120301069
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103474
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    1. The Real Exchange Rate and China's Savings
      by Doug Campbell in Douglas L. Campbell on 2017-03-15 07:49:00
    2. The Real Exchange Rates and Trade Literature
      by Doug Campbell in Douglas L. Campbell on 2017-04-07 01:50:00
    3. Is US Manufacturing Really Great Again?
      by Doug Campbell in Douglas L. Campbell on 2017-05-09 23:36:00
    4. Ben Bernanke, in Denial? "When Growth is Not Enough"
      by Doug Campbell in Douglas L. Campbell on 2017-07-09 13:14:00
    5. Robert Lawrence's New Manufacturing Paper: Confusing Trends and Levels
      by Doug Campbell in Douglas L. Campbell on 2017-11-16 16:13:00
    6. Ben Bernanke, in Denial? “When Growth is Not Enough”
      by ? in Naked Capitalism on 2017-07-11 10:24:00
    7. Campbell: Relative Prices and Hysteresis: Evidence from US Manufacturing—Noted
      by ? in Grasping Reality with the Invisible Hand on 2020-06-24 17:00:05

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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