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New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment

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  • Teresa C. Fort
  • Justin R. Pierce
  • Peter K. Schott

Abstract

We use relatively unexplored dimensions of US microdata to examine how US manufacturing employment has evolved across industries, firms, establishments, and regions. We show that these data provide support for both trade- and technology-based explanations of the overall decline of employment over this period, while also highlighting the difficulties of estimating an overall contribution for each mechanism. Toward that end, we discuss how further analysis of these trends might yield sharper insights.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa C. Fort & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," NBER Working Papers 24490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24490
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    Cited by:

    1. Clément Malgouyres & Thierry Mayer & Clément Mazet-Sonilhac, 2019. "Technology-Induced Trade Shocks? Evidence from Broadband Expansion in France," Working papers 741, Banque de France.
    2. Fariha Kamal, 2019. "A Portrait of U.S. Factoryless Goods Producers," NBER Chapters, in: The Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Katherine Eriksson & Katheryn Russ & Jay C. Shambaugh & Minfei Xu, 2019. "Trade Shocks and the Shifting Landscape of U.S. Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 25646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Feenstra, Robert C. & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2019. "US exports and employment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 46-58.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Ulrich Volz, 2020. "The Yen Exchange Rate and the Hollowing Out of the Japanese Industry," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 371-406, April.
    6. Joshua Greenstein, 2020. "The Precariat Class Structure and Income Inequality among US Workers: 1980–2018," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 447-469, September.
    7. Guo, Audrey, 2020. "The Effects of Unemployment Insurance Taxation on Multi-Establishment Firms," MPRA Paper 97919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Malgouyres, Clément & Mayer, Thierry & Mazet, Clément, 2019. "Technology-induced Trade Shocks? Evidence from Broadband Expansion in France," CEPR Discussion Papers 13847, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Bell, Kathleen P. & Crandall, Mindy & Munroe, Darla K. & Colocousis, Chris & Morzillo, Anita, 2018. "Rural forest-based communities, economic shocks, and economic trajectories," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274499, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Kym Anderson & Sundar Ponnusamy, 2019. "Structural Transformation to Manufacturing and Services: What Role for Trade?," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 36(2), pages 32-71, September.
    11. Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K., 2018. "Investment responses to trade liberalization: Evidence from U.S. industries and establishments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 203-222.
    12. Myeongwan Kim, 2020. "The Price Effect of Trade: Evidence of the China Shock and Canadian Consumer Prices," CSLS Research Reports 2020-02, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    13. Fabian Eckert & Teresa C. Fort & Peter K. Schott & Natalie J. Yang, 2020. "Imputing Missing Values in the US Census Bureau's County Business Patterns," NBER Working Papers 26632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Miaojie Yu, 2020. "China-US Trade War and Trade Talk," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-981-15-3785-1, December.
    15. Susan N. Houseman & Brad J. Hershbein, 2018. "Understanding the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 18-287, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    16. Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Nicholas Bloom & Andre Kurmann & Kyle Handley & Philip Luck, 2019. "The Impact of Chinese Trade on U.S. Employment: The Good, The Bad, and The Apocryphal," 2019 Meeting Papers 1433, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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