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U.S. Job Flows and the China Shock

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  • Brian J. Asquith
  • Sanjana Goswami
  • David Neumark
  • Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez

Abstract

International trade exposure affects job creation and destruction along the intensive margin (job flows due to expansions and contractions of firms' employment) as well as along the extensive margin (job flows due to births and deaths of firms). This paper uses 1992-2011 employment data from the {universe} of U.S. establishments to construct job flows at both the industry and commuting-zone levels, and then estimates the impact of the `China shock' on each job-flow type. The China shock is accounted for by either the increase in Chinese import penetration in the U.S., or by the U.S. policy change that granted Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status to China. We find that the China shock affects U.S. employment mainly through deaths of establishments. At the commuting-zone level, we find evidence of large job reallocation from the Chinese-competition exposed sector to the nonexposed sector, and establish that the gross employment effects of the China shock are fundamentally different from those of a more general adverse shock affecting the U.S. demand for domestic labor.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian J. Asquith & Sanjana Goswami & David Neumark & Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez, 2017. "U.S. Job Flows and the China Shock," NBER Working Papers 24080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24080
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    3. Endoh, Masahiro, 2022. "The impact of firms’ international trade on domestic suppliers: The case of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Endoh, Masahiro, 2023. "The China shock and job reallocation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Teresa C. Fort & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 47-72, Spring.
    6. Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K., 2018. "Investment responses to trade liberalization: Evidence from U.S. industries and establishments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 203-222.
    7. Jiang, Zhe (Jasmine), 2023. "‘Multinational Firms’ Sourcing Decisions and Wage Inequality: A Dynamic Analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Lastauskas, Povilas & Proškutė, Aurelija & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2023. "How do firms adjust when trade stops?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 287-307.
    9. Ding, Xiaoli & Cheng, Sang & Qin, Wenjing & Gu, Xin, 2023. "Does uncertainty affect graduates’ decision to relocate for work? Evidence at China’s city level," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 10-19.
    10. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Tadashi & Urata, Shujiro, 2021. "Impacts of increased Chinese imports on Japan’s labor market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Kim, Gueyon, 2022. "Trade-Induced Adoption of New Work," IZA Discussion Papers 15165, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Jay Hyun & Ziho Park & Vladimir Smirnyagin, 2021. "Import Competition and Firms’ Internal Networks," Working Papers 21-28, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    13. Walls, Margaret A. & Wibbenmeyer, Matthew, 2023. "How Local are the Local Economic Impacts of Wildfires?," RFF Working Paper Series 23-03, Resources for the Future.
    14. Choi, Jaerim & Hyun, Jay & Kim, Gueyon & Park, Ziho, 2023. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Offshoring, and the Environment: Evidence from US Manufacturing Establishments," IZA Discussion Papers 15919, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. HAYAKAWA Kazunobu & ITO Tadashi & URATA Shujiro, 2022. "Impacts of Increased Chinese Imports on Japan’s Labor Market: Firm and Regional Aspects," Discussion papers 22037, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Nicholas Bloom & Andre Kurmann & Kyle Handley & Philip Luck, 2019. "The Impact of Chinese Trade on U.S. Employment: The Good, The Bad, and The Apocryphal," 2019 Meeting Papers 1433, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Erling Barth & Henning Finseraas & Anders Kjelsrud & Kalle Moene, 2023. "Hit by the Silk Road: how wage coordination in Europe mitigates the China shock," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 32-72, January.
    18. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Tadashi Ito & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "Labor Market Impacts of Import Penetration from China and Regional Trade Agreement Partners: The Case of Japan," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 59(3), pages 306-323, September.
    19. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2022. "Assessing the impact of China shocks on intra-ASEAN trade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Goya, Daniel, 2021. "The network effect of Chinese competition on what domestic suppliers produce," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    21. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2023. "Japan's Dependence on China in Supply Chains: Diversion of Imports from China to ASEAN Countries," IDE Discussion Papers 897, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    22. Pham, Hoang, 2023. "Trade reform, oligopsony, and labor market distortion: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    23. Gueyon Kim, 2022. "Trade-Induced Adoption of New Work," Working Papers 2022-007, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    24. Aaron Blanco & Jeff Borland & Michael Coelli & James Maccarrone, 2021. "The Impact of Growth in Manufactured Imports from China on Employment in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(317), pages 243-266, June.
    25. Olabisi Michael, 2020. "Trade shocks and youth jobs," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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