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When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Young Men

Author

Listed:
  • Autor, David

    () (MIT)

  • Dorn, David

    () (University of Zurich)

  • Hanson, Gordon H.

    () (University of California, San Diego)

Abstract

We exploit the gender-specific components of large-scale labor demand shocks stemming from rising international manufacturing competition to test how shifts in the relative economic stature of young men versus young women affected marriage, fertility and children's living circumstances during 1990-2014. On average, trade shocks differentially reduce employment and earnings of young adult males. Consistent with Becker's model of household specialization, shocks to male's relative earnings reduce marriage and fertility. Consistent with prominent sociological accounts, these shocks heighten male idleness and premature mortality, and raise the share of mothers who are unwed and the share of children living in below-poverty, single-headed households.

Suggested Citation

  • Autor, David & Dorn, David & Hanson, Gordon H., 2018. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Young Men," IZA Discussion Papers 11465, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11465
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Shelly Lundberg & Robert A. Pollak & Jenna Stearns, 2016. "Family Inequality: Diverging Patterns in Marriage, Cohabitation, and Childbearing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 79-102, Spring.
    3. Jason M. Lindo & Jessamyn Schaller & Benjamin Hansen, 2013. "Caution! Men Not at Work: Gender-Specific Labor Market Conditions and Child Maltreatment," NBER Working Papers 18994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nezih Guner & Christopher Rauh & Elizabeth Caucutt, 2017. "Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration and the Racial Marriage Divide," 2017 Meeting Papers 779, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
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    9. Melissa S. Kearney & Riley Wilson, 2017. "Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom," NBER Working Papers 23408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mark Aguiar & Mark Bils & Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst, 2017. "Leisure Luxuries and the Labor Supply of Young Men," NBER Working Papers 23552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2018. "Deaths of Despair or Drug Problems?," NBER Working Papers 24188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Melissa S. Kearney & Riley Wilson, 2017. "Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom," NBER Working Papers 23408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Teresa C. Fort & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "New Perspectives on the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-023, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Liepmann, Hannah, 2018. "The Impact of a Negative Labor Demand Shock On Fertility - Evidence From the Fall of the Berlin Wall," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 69, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    5. David A. Jaeger & Theodore J. Joyce & Robert Kaestner, 2018. "A Cautionary Tale of Evaluating Identifying Assumptions: Did Reality TV Really Cause a Decline in Teenage Childbearing?," NBER Working Papers 24856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Francesco Vona, 2018. "Job losses and the political acceptability of climate policies : an amplified collective action problem," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7upb3pbvdn8, Sciences Po.
    7. Anne Case & Angus Deaton, 2017. "Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 397-476.
    8. Shushanik Hakobyan & John McLaren, 2018. "NAFTA and the Wages of Married Women," NBER Working Papers 24424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fletcher, Jason M. & Polos, Jessica, 2017. "Nonmarital and Teen Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 10833, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    import competition; trade flows; single-parent families; household structure; mortality; fertility; marriage market; local labor markets;

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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