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Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting

Author

Listed:
  • Osea Giuntella
  • Lorenzo Rotunno
  • Luca Stella

Abstract

Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to globalization on the fertility and marital behavior in Germany, until recently a lowest-low fertility setting. We find that exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated, married men, and full-time workers and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find significant effects on completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant impact on marital behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2022. "Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting," NBER Working Papers 30119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30119
    Note: CH LS
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Pio Dachille & Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò, 2025. "Guaranteed Minimum Income and Fertility," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2588, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    2. Hoang, Diem, 2025. "Export growth and demographic changes: Evidence from Vietnam," Ruhr Economic Papers 1145, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Mansour Hani & Medina Pamela & Velásquez Andrea, 2023. "When Women’s Work Disappears: Marriage and Fertility Decisions in Peru," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 385-412, December.
    4. Peter Levell & Matthias Parey & Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique, 2023. "Household responses to trade shocks," IFS Working Papers W23/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Pham Phuong Ngoc & Dainn Wie & Hanol Lee, 2024. "The Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Women’s Marriage and Fertility Decisions in Vietnam," GRIPS Discussion Papers 23-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    6. Seung‐Hun Chung & Ahmad Shah Mobariz, 2025. "Harmony in diplomacy, convergence in choices: Low fertility diffusion through Sino‐Korean normalization," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 91(3), pages 1048-1068, January.
    7. Hanbo Wu & Luca Maria Pesando, 2025. "Demographic convergence in marriage timing: Intersecting gender and educational expansion," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 52(14), pages 415-444.
    8. Erten, Bilge & Leight, Jessica & Zhu, Lianming, 2023. "The Effects of FDI Liberalization on Structural Transformation and Demographic Change: Evidence from China," IZA Discussion Papers 16094, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. Ngoc, Pham Phuong & Lee, Hanol & Wie, Dainn, 2024. "Trade liberalization and women's marriage and fertility decisions in Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1071-1082.
    10. Giulio Giacomo Cantone & Venera Tomaselli, 2024. "A Multiversal Model of Vibration of Effects of the Equitable and Sustainable Well-Being (BES) on Fertility," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 941-964, December.
    11. Anna Matysiak & Daniela Bellani & Honorata Bogusz, 2023. "Industrial Robots and Regional Fertility in European Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-36, December.
    12. Wei Luo & Xianqiang Zou, 2024. "Demographic impacts of China’s trade liberalization: marriage, spousal quality, and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 1-31, September.
    13. Irastorza-Fadrique, Aitor & Levell, Peter & Parey, Matthias, 2025. "Household responses to trade shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    14. Hiroaki MORI & Kiho MUROGA & Akira SASAHARA, 2025. "Gender-specific Exposure to Trade, Labor Market Adjustments, and the Family," Discussion papers 25031, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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