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Demographic impacts of China’s trade liberalization: marriage, spousal quality, and fertility

Author

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  • Wei Luo

    (Jinan University)

  • Xianqiang Zou

    (Renmin University of China)

Abstract

This study examines the effects of export tariff liberalization on women’s marriage and fertility choices in China. Utilizing a shift-share design that combines industry-level variation in export tariff reduction with differences in industry composition across cities, we discover that women in areas with greater export tariff reductions exhibit a reduced inclination to marry, postpone marriage, and have a higher likelihood to marry well-educated partners. Moreover, these reductions in export tariffs negatively impact women’s fertility primarily through altering marriage formation and timing, and marginally affect newborn sex ratios. We further explore potential channels and highlight the role of improvements in women’s absolute and relative economic status. Our results underscore the influence of global trade on demographic trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Luo & Xianqiang Zou, 2024. "Demographic impacts of China’s trade liberalization: marriage, spousal quality, and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 1-31, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:37:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s00148-024-01040-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-024-01040-9
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade liberalization; Marriage; Marriage matching; Fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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