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Did US Politicians Expect the China Shock?

Author

Listed:
  • Matilde Bombardini
  • Bingjing Li
  • Francesco Trebbi

Abstract

Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. Employing repeated votes in the US House of Representatives on China's normal trade relations (NTR) status during the two decades straddling China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, we apply a moment inequality approach designed to deliver consistent estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. This methodology offers a robust way to test hypotheses about what information politicians have at the time of their decision and to estimate the weight that constituents, ideology, and other factors have in policy making and voting.

Suggested Citation

  • Matilde Bombardini & Bingjing Li & Francesco Trebbi, 2023. "Did US Politicians Expect the China Shock?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(1), pages 174-209, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:113:y:2023:i:1:p:174-209
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210140
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    Cited by:

    1. Che, Yi & Lin, Donglin & Zhang, Yan, 2025. "Pains or gains: Trade war, trade deficit, and tariff evasion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Muller, Seán M., 2021. "The dangers of performative scientism as the alternative to anti-scientific policymaking: A critical, preliminary assessment of South Africa’s Covid-19 response and its consequences," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Wei Luo & Xianqiang Zou, 2024. "Demographic impacts of China’s trade liberalization: marriage, spousal quality, and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 1-31, September.
    4. Greenland, Andrew & Ion, Mihai & Lopresti, John & Schott, Peter K., 2024. "Using equity market reactions to infer exposure to trade liberalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Geng, Yini & Zheng, Zhiqiang & Yuan, Xuemei & Jiménez-Zarco, Ana Isabel, 2025. "ESG performance and total factor productivity of enterprises: the role of digitization," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(PA).
    6. Brey, Björn, 2024. "The effect of recent technological change on US immigration policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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