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Guaranteed Minimum Income and Fertility

Author

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  • Dachille, Giuseppe

    (University of Rome Tor Vergata)

  • De Paola, Maria

    (University of Calabria)

  • Nistico, Roberto

    (University of Naples Federico II)

Abstract

We study the fertility effects of Italy’s Reddito di Cittadinanza (RdC), a national minimum income program introduced in 2019. Exploiting administrative data from the Italian Social Security Institute and a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we document that RdC increased recipients’ childbirth probability by 1.5 percentage points (18%) over two years in the South, with no effect in the Centre-North. Labor supply declined by 10%, but only in the Centre-North. Regional heterogeneity reflects differences in gender norms, financial constraints, and opportunity costs of childbearing. Our findings highlight how income transfers interact with local context to shape demographic and labor market behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Dachille, Giuseppe & De Paola, Maria & Nistico, Roberto, 2025. "Guaranteed Minimum Income and Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 18105, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18105
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    JEL classification:

    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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