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A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France

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  • Andrew E. Clark

    (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • Anthony Lepinteur

    (University of Luxembourg)

Abstract

Job insecurity can have wide-ranging consequences outside of the labour market. We here argue that it reduces fertility amongst the employed. The 1999 rise in the French Delalande tax, paid by large private firms when they laid off workers aged over 50, produced an exogenous rise in job insecurity for younger workers in these firms. A difference-in-differences analysis of French ECHP data reveals that this greater job insecurity for these under-50s significantly reduced their probability of having a new child by 3.9 percentage points. Reduced fertility is only found at the intensive margin: job insecurity reduces family size but not the probability of parenthood itself. Our results also suggest negative selection into parenthood, as this fertility effect does not appear for low-income and less-educated workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew E. Clark & Anthony Lepinteur, 2020. "A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France," Institut des Politiques Publiques halshs-02540036, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-02540036
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-02540036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew E. Clark & Conchita d'Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2020. "Marriage as Insurance: Job Protection and Job Insecurity in France," PSE Working Papers halshs-02933888, HAL.
    2. Blanchflower, David G. & Clark, Andrew E., 2020. "Children, Unhappiness and Family Finances," GLO Discussion Paper Series 561, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment Protection; Fertility; Layoff tax; Perceived Job Security; Difference-in-Differences;

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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