IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Economic insecurity and fertility intentions: the case of Italy

  • Francesca Modena
  • Concetta Rondinelli
  • Fabio Sabatini

We aim to provide an explanation for the combination of the relatively low female participation rates and lowest-low fertility levels in Italy. Starting from the assumption that childbearing decisions also depend on uncertainty about future employment, income, and wealth, we empirically assess how fertility intentions are affected by: 1) the deprivation of a quality job, which may severely compromise the employability of workers and is likely to provoke feelings of insecurity about future employment; 2) conditions of economic disadvantage in terms of household income and wealth, which may imply insufficient means to deal with potential adverse future events, thereby generating in the household feelings of anxiety and economic insecurity. We show that the instability of women’s work status (i.e. the holding of occasional and precarious employment positions) significantly discourages the decision to have a first child. Low levels of household wealth significantly and positively influence the decision to postpone, or even decide against, having a first child. The chances of further childbirth are significantly and negatively influenced by household income insecurity.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.eeri.eu/documents/wp/EERI_RP_2012_18.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels in its series EERI Research Paper Series with number EERI_RP_2012_18.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 18 Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2012_18
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Avenue de Beaulieu, 1160 Brussels

Phone: +322 299 3523
Fax: +322 299 3523
Web page: http://www.eeri.eu/index.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Dolado, Juan J. & Garcia-Serrano, Carlos & Jimeno, Juan F, 2001. "Drawing Lessons From the Boom of Temporary Jobs in Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 2884, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
  3. Daniela Del Boca & Silvia Pasqua & Chiara Pronzato, 2007. "The Impact Of Institutions On Motherhood And Work," CHILD Working Papers wp06_07, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
  4. Boeri, Tito & Brandolini, Andrea, 2005. "The Age of Discontent: Italian Households at the Beginning of the Decade," IZA Discussion Papers 1530, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Anna Laura Mancini & Silvia Pasqua, 2009. "Asymmetries and Interdependencies in Time use between Italian Spouses," CHILD Working Papers wp12_09, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
  6. Berloffa, Gabriella & Modena, Francesca, 2012. "Economic well-being in Italy: The role of income insecurity and intergenerational inequality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 751-765.
  7. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Jean Kimmel, 2004. "The Motherhood Wage Gap for Women in the United States: The Importance of College and Fertility Delay," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/07, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  8. Schultz, T Paul, 1985. "Changing World Prices, Women's Wages, and the Fertility Transition: Sweden, 1860-1910," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1126-54, December.
  9. Paola Giuliano, 2008. "Culture and the Family: An Application to Educational Choices in Italy," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 98(4), pages 3-38, July-Augu.
  10. Michael Burda & Daniel S. Hamermesh & Philippe Weil, 2007. "Total Work, Gender and Social Norms," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-058, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  11. Osberg, L., 1998. "Economic Insecurity in the Malaysian Context," Working Papers 18, John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy.
  12. Emilia Del Bono & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2012. "Clash Of Career And Family: Fertility Decisions After Job Displacement," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 659-683, 08.
  13. Gabriella Berloffa & Francesca Modena, 2014. "Measuring (In)Security in the Event of Unemployment: Are We Forgetting Someone?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages S77-S97, 05.
  14. Angelo Antoci & Fabio Sabatini & Mauro Sodini, 2010. "The Solaria Syndrome: Social Capital in a Growing Hyper-technological Economy," Department of Economics University of Siena 585, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  15. Walter Bossert & Conchita D'Ambrosio, 2009. "Measuring Economic Insecurity," Working Papers 111, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  16. Lars Osberg & Andrew Sharpe, 2011. "Moving from a GDP-Based to a Well-Being Based Metric of Economic Performance and Social Progress: Results from the Index of Economic Well-Being for OECD Countries, 1980-2009," CSLS Research Reports 2011-12, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
  17. Anna Cristina D’Addio & Marco Mira d’Ercole, 2005. "Policies, Institutions and Fertility Rates: A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2005(2), pages 7-45.
  18. Fiorillo, Damiano & Sabatini, Fabio, 2011. "Quality and quantity: The role of social interactions in self-reported individual health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(11), pages 1644-1652.
  19. Guadalupe, Maria, 2003. "The hidden costs of fixed term contracts: the impact on work accidents," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 339-357, June.
  20. Kim, Myoung-Hee & Kim, Chang-yup & Park, Jin-Kyung & Kawachi, Ichiro, 2008. "Is precarious employment damaging to self-rated health? Results of propensity score matching methods, using longitudinal data in South Korea," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 67(12), pages 1982-1994, December.
  21. Emilia Del Bono & Massimiliano Bratti & Daniela Vuri, 2004. "New mothers’ labour force participation in Italy: the role of job characteristics," CHILD Working Papers wp05_04, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
  22. Ferrera, Maurizio, 2005. "The Boundaries of Welfare: European Integration and the New Spatial Politics of Social Protection," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199284672, June.
  23. Leandro D’Aurizio & Livio Romano, 2011. "Family Firms and the Great Recession: Out of Sight, Out of Mind?," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/28, European University Institute.
  24. Booth, Alison L. & Francesconi, Marco & Frank, Jeff, 2000. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones or Dead Ends?," IZA Discussion Papers 205, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  25. Rondinelli, Concetta & Zizza, Roberta, 2011. "(Non)persistent effects of fertility on female labour supply," ISER Working Paper Series 2011-04, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  26. Fiorillo, Damiano & Sabatini, Fabio, 2011. "Quality and quantity: the role of social interactions in individual health," AICCON Working Papers 84-2011, Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit.
  27. Daniele Vignoli & Sven Drefahl & Gustavo De Santis, 2012. "Whose job instability affects the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy? A tale of two partners," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(2), pages 41-62, January.
  28. Ermisch, John F, 1989. "Purchased Child Care, Optimal Family Size and Mother's Employment: Theory and Econometric Analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 2(2), pages 79-102.
  29. Del Boca, Daniela & Locatelli, Marilena, 2006. "The Determinants of Motherhood and Work Status: A Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 2414, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  30. Siv Gustafsson, 2001. "Optimal age at motherhood. Theoretical and empirical considerations on postponement of maternity in Europe," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247.
  31. Margaret Marini & Peter Hodsdon, 1981. "Effects of the timing of marriage and first birth of the spacing of subsequent births," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 18(4), pages 529-548, November.
  32. Thomas Fent & Belinda Aparicio Diaz & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "Family policies in the context of low fertility and social structure," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(37), pages 963-998, November.
  33. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/8650 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Debra Friedman & Michael Hechter & Satoshi Kanazawa, 1994. "A theory of the value of children," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(3), pages 375-401, August.
  35. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1.
  36. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2000. "The impact of union formation dynamics on first births in West Germany and Italy: are there signs of convergence?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2000-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  37. Francesca Modena & Fabio Sabatini, 2010. "I Would if I Could: Precarious Employment and Childbearing Intentions in Italy," Department of Economics Working Papers 1013, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  38. Larry Bumpass & Ronald Rindfuss & Richard Jamosik, 1978. "Age and marital status at first birth and the pace of subsequent fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 15(1), pages 75-86, February.
  39. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Serrano-Padial, Ricardo, 2010. "Labor market flexibility and poverty dynamics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 632-642, August.
  40. Barbieri Paolo & Scherer Stefani, 2005. "Le conseguenze sociali della flessibilizzazione del mercato del lavoro in Italia," Stato e mercato, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 291-322.
  41. Siv Gustafsson, 2005. "Having Kids Later. Economic Analyses for Industrialized Countries," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 5-16, December.
  42. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  43. Berna Miller Torr & Susan E. Short, 2004. "Second Births and the Second Shift: A Research Note on Gender Equity and Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(1), pages 109-130.
  44. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
  45. Joachim Wilde, 2008. "A note on GMM estimation of probit models with endogenous regressors," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 471-484, July.
  46. Jorge M. Aguero & Mindy S. Marks, 2008. "Motherhood and Female Labor Force Participation: Evidence from Infertility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 500-504, May.
  47. repec:cai:poeine:pope_405_0595 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Butz, William P & Ward, Michael P, 1979. "The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 318-28, June.
  49. Irene Brunetti & Davide Fiaschi, 2010. "Intergenerational Mobility in Italy," Discussion Papers 2010/102, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  50. Lars Osberg, 1998. "Economic Insecurity," Discussion Papers 0088, University of New South Wales, Social Policy Research Centre.
  51. Federico Cingano & Piero Cipollone, 2007. "University drop-out. The case of Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 626, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  52. Alicia Adsera, 2005. "Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 189-193, May.
  53. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, .
  54. Bettio, Francesca & Villa, Paola, 1998. "A Mediterranean Perspective on the Breakdown of the Relationship between Participation and Fertility," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 137-71, March.
  55. Gabriella Berloffa & Francesca Modena & Paola Villa, 2011. "Inequality of opportunity for young people in Italy: Understanding the role of circumstances," Working Papers 241, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  56. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/8651 is not listed on IDEAS
  57. Gabriella Berloffa & Paola Villa, 2010. "Differences In Equivalent Income Across Cohorts Of Households: Evidence From Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(4), pages 693-714, December.
  58. Corak, Miles, 2006. "Do Poor Children Become Poor Adults? Lessons from a Cross Country Comparison of Generational Earnings Mobility," IZA Discussion Papers 1993, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  59. Mark R. Rosenzweig, 1982. "Educational Subsidy, Agricultural Development, and Fertility Change," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 67-88.
  60. T. Paul Schultz, 2001. "The Fertility Transition: Economic Explanations," Working Papers 833, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  61. Peter McDonald, 2000. "Gender Equity in Theories of Fertility Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 427-439.
  62. Origo, Federica & Pagani, Laura, 2009. "Flexicurity and job satisfaction in Europe: The importance of perceived and actual job stability for well-being at work," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 547-555, October.
  63. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S14-64, Part II, .
  64. Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2005. "Economic uncertainty and fertility postponement: evidence from German panel data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-034, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  65. Dagenais, Marcel G., 1999. "Inconsistency of a proposed nonlinear instrumental variables estimator for probit and logit models with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-21, April.
  66. cipollone piero, 2001. "Is the Italian Labour market segmented?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 400, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  67. Routledge, Bryan R. & von Amsberg, Joachim, 2003. "Social capital and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 167-193, January.
  68. Sara Rica & Amaia Iza, 2005. "Career Planning in Spain: Do Fixed-term Contracts Delay Marriage and Parenthood?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 49-73, November.
  69. Lapo Calamai, 2009. "The link between devolution and regional disparities: evidence from the Italian regions," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 41(5), pages 1129-1151, May.
  70. Vegard Skirbekk & Hans-Peter Kohler & Alexia Prskawetz, 2004. "Birth month, school graduation, and the timing of births and marriages," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(3), pages 547-568, August.
  71. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Relationship between Wages and Income and the Timing and Spacing of Births: Evidence from Swedish Longitudinal Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1411-41, November.
  72. D'Addio, Anna Cristina & Rosholm, Michael, 2005. "Exits from temporary jobs in Europe: A competing risks analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 449-468, August.
  73. George Hondroyiannis, 2009. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty:An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Working Papers 96, Bank of Greece.
  74. Riccardo LUCCHETTI, 2000. "Inconsistency Of Naive GMM Estimation For QR Models With Endogenous Regressors," Working Papers 140, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  75. Andrea Brandolini & Piero Casadio & Piero Cipollone & Marco Magnani & Alfonso Rosolia, 2007. "Employment Growth in Italy in the 1990s: Institutional Arrangements and Market Forces," AIEL Series in Labour Economics, in: Nicola Acocella & Riccardo Leoni (ed.), Social Pacts, Employment and Growth. A Reappraisal of Ezio Tarantelli’s Thought, edition 1, chapter 4, pages 31-68 AIEL - Associazione Italiana Economisti del Lavoro.
  76. Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680.
  77. Fabio Sabatini, 2008. "Social Capital and the Quality of Economic Development," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 466-499, 08.
  78. S. Philip Morgan, 2003. "Is low fertility a twenty-first-century demographic crisis?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(4), pages 589-603, November.
  79. Menéndez, María & Benach, Joan & Muntaner, Carles & Amable, Marcelo & O'Campo, Patricia, 2007. "Is precarious employment more damaging to women's health than men's?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 776-781, February.
  80. Henriette Engelhardt & Alexia Prskawetz, 2002. "On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-052, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  81. Stefani Scherer, 2009. "The Social Consequences of Insecure Jobs," Social Indicators Research- An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 93(3), pages 527-547, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2012_18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julia van Hove)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.