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Empirische Aufsätze zu den sozioökonomischen Konsequenzen von ökonomischer Unsicherheit

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  • Wolfgang Auer

Abstract

Seit etlichen Jahren liegt die Geburtenrate in Deutschland weit unter dem Reproduktionsniveau, was langfristig dazu führt, dass die Bevölkerung schrumpft. Dies stellt eine Bedrohung für ein nachhaltiges Wirtschaftswachstum und ein stabiles Sozialversicherungssystem dar. Folglich ist in jüngster Zeit das Fertilitätsverhalten junger Menschen für die Politik von höchstem Interesse. Die ökonomische Forschung beschäftigt sich schon seit längerer Zeit mit diesem Problem und hat mehrere Gründe für die geringen Geburtenzahlen identifiziert wie etwa Änderungen in den Einstellungen und Werten, sozioökonomische Faktoren und institutionelle Rahmenbedingungen. Der Pionier auf diesem Gebiet, Garry Becker, hat in einem sehr einfachen Modellrahmen gezeigt, dass die wirtschaftlichen Gegebenheiten und insbesondere die Arbeitsmarktbedingungen von großer Bedeutung für Fertilitätsentscheidungen sind, da sie die Opportunitätskosten des Kinderkriegens bestimmen. Der Beitrag dieser Arbeit ist es, dass sie in vier eigenständigen Kapiteln die sozioökonomischen Folgen von ökonomischer Unsicherheit empirisch untersucht. Auf aggregierter Ebene konzentriert sich Kapitel 1 auf die kurzfristigen Auswirkungen der lokalen Arbeitsmarktbedingungen auf die lokale Geburtenrate. Die langfristigen Auswirkungen auf die Kohortenfertilität werden in Kapitel 2 präsentiert. Auf der individuellen Ebene untersucht Kapitel 3 empirisch die Effekte von befristeter Beschäftigung am Anfang einer Karriere auf das Timing der Erstgeburt und die Kinderzahl, während Kapitel 4 die gesundheitlichen Folgen von ökonomischer Unsicherheit am Karrierebeginn betrachtet. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass ökonomische Unsicherheit auf individueller und aggregierter Ebene einen großen Einfluss auf die Fertilitätsentscheidungen aber auch auf die psychische Gesundheit junger Menschen (unter 40 Jahre) hat. Allerdings finden sich starke Hinweise auf geschlechtsspezifische Effekte sowohl auf der individuellen als auch der aggregierten Ebene. Das bedeutet, dass Frauen auf ökonomische Unsicherheit in den ersten Berufsjahren anders reagieren als Männer. Das wiederum hat erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die Empfehlungen für die Wirtschaftspolitik: Erstens sollte eine gut konzipierte familienorientierte Arbeitsmarktpolitik versuchen, die geschlechtsspezifische negativen Folgen der ökonomischen Unsicherheit zu minimieren. Zweitens sollte für eine gleichmäßigere Verteilung der Kosten, die mit der Flexibilisierung der Arbeitsmärkte einhergehen, gesorgt werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Auer, 2018. "Empirische Aufsätze zu den sozioökonomischen Konsequenzen von ökonomischer Unsicherheit," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 79.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:79
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    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts

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