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Stepping Stones versus Dead End Jobs: Exits from Temporary Contracts in Italy after the 2003 Reform


  • Bruno, Giovanni S. F.

    () (Bocconi University)

  • Caroleo, Floro Ernesto

    () (University of Naples Parthenope)

  • Dessy, Orietta

    () (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)


In this paper we study labor market transitions out of temporary jobs in Italy focussing on an interesting period of the Italian recent history: the one immediately following the last labor market reform aimed at flexibilizing and liberalizing the Italian labor market by a widespread use of temporary work arrangements in 2003, and immediately preceding the economic downturn starting in the second half of 2007. The data-set used is the 2004-2007 IT-SILC individual panel. We apply a discrete-time duration analysis and estimate a competing-risk model for assessing to which extent, and for whom, starting a temporary job after 2004 results within a 3-years span in a stepping stone to permanent employment rather than a dead end out of the labor market or in precarious jobs. We find that temporary contracts have a positive impact only on men's transitions to permanent employment. School leavers, workers in the South, as well as women, are instead rather penalized after a temporary job. They have an higher probability to remain trapped in temporary contracts than men and an higher probability of exiting the labour market. In particular, school leavers entering the labour market with a temporary contract experience relatively high exit-rates to non-employment just after the first year of the contract.

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  • Bruno, Giovanni S. F. & Caroleo, Floro Ernesto & Dessy, Orietta, 2012. "Stepping Stones versus Dead End Jobs: Exits from Temporary Contracts in Italy after the 2003 Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 6746, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6746

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    Cited by:

    1. Auer, Wolfgang & Danzer, Natalia, 2014. "Fixed-Term Employment and Fertility: Evidence from German Micro Data," IZA Discussion Papers 8612, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Giovanni S.F. Bruno & Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Orietta Dessy, 2014. "Temporary Contracts and Young Workers’ Job Satisfaction in Italy," AIEL Series in Labour Economics,in: Dario Sciulli & Miguel Ángel Malo (ed.), Disadvantaged Workers, edition 1, chapter 6, pages 95-120 AIEL - Associazione Italiana Economisti del Lavoro.
    3. Auer, Wolfgang, 2015. "Health Consequences of Starting a Career on a Fixed-Term Contract," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113080, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. repec:ilo:ilowps:481497 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bachmann, Ronald & Bechara, Peggy & Kramer, Anica & Rzepka, Sylvi, 2014. "A Study on Labour Market Transitions Using Micro-data from the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (SILC). Final Report," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 111484.
    6. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:178-189 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. d'Agostino, Giorgio & Pieroni, Luca & Scarlato, Margherita, 2015. "Revisiting the Effects of Enhanced Flexibility on the Italian Labour Market," MPRA Paper 63239, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Wolfgang Auer & Natalia Danzer, 2015. "Uncertainty in the labour market: How does fixed-term employment affect fertility and mental health of the young generation?," IBS Working Papers 6/2015, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.

    More about this item


    discrete duration data; temporary jobs; mixed multinomial logit;

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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