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The Pathway To Permanent Jobs: A Time Event Analysis Of Young Italian Workers

Author

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  • Leandro Elia

    () (Dipartimento di Economia e Statistica, Università della Calabria)

Abstract

The paper analyses the effect of fixed-term contracts on the probability of finding a permanent job in the Italian labour market. I estimate a continuous proportional hazard model with nonparametric smoothing splines for time varying continuous covariates. It will be shown that such a method excellently improves the model specification with regard to proportionality assumption. Results surprisingly suggest that the hazard rate of switching to permanent employment is higher for unskilled workers than skilled workers; while transition probability is not affected by gender differences per se, rather individual traits for females and males act differently on the baseline hazard. Results show that a period of temporary employment varying between two or three years is needed before obtaining a permanent jobs. Potential implications of the main findings are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Leandro Elia, 2010. "The Pathway To Permanent Jobs: A Time Event Analysis Of Young Italian Workers," Working Papers 201018, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
  • Handle: RePEc:clb:wpaper:201018
    as

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    File URL: http://www.ecostat.unical.it/RePEc/WorkingPapers/WP18_2010.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2010-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D'Addio, Anna Cristina & Rosholm, Michael, 2005. "Exits from temporary jobs in Europe: A competing risks analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 449-468, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni S.F. Bruno & Floro E. Caroleo & Orietta Dessy, 2013. "Stepping stones versus dead end jobs: exits from temporary contracts in Italy after the 2003 reform," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 121(1), pages 31-62.
    2. repec:ejn:ejefjr:v:5:y:2017:i:2:p:36-50 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fixed-term job; duration analysis; penalized likelihood; smoothing spline;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • J42 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets

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