IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/wbrepe/wb060301.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exits from unemployment : recall or new job

Author

Listed:
  • Alba, Alfonso
  • Arranz, José M.
  • Muñoz-Bullón, Fernando

Abstract

This paper studies transitions out of unemployment in Spain distinguishing between recall to the same employer and reemployment in a new job. We use a large sample of newly unemployed workers obtained from Social Security records for Spain. These data contain information about each individual's employer identy before and after the unemployment spell. A discrete-time duration model with competing risks of exits serves us to investigate the factors that influence the probabilities of leaving unemployment to return to the same employer or to find a new job with a different employer. We find that the route to exit unemployment is determinant to understand the influence of individual an job characteristics on the hazard rate, as well as the latter dependence on unemployment duration. The recall hazard rate exhibits positive duration dependence during the first months and negative duration dependence thereafter (it is larger for females), while the new-job hazard presents positive duration dependence (it is larger for males)

Suggested Citation

  • Alba, Alfonso & Arranz, José M. & Muñoz-Bullón, Fernando, 2006. "Exits from unemployment : recall or new job," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb060301, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:wb060301
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/120/wb060301.pdf?sequence=1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    2. Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2001. "Structurally dependent competing risks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 169-173, November.
    3. Kostas G. Mavromaras & Chris D. Orme, 2004. "Temporary layoffs and split population models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 49-67.
    4. J. Ignacio García‐Pérez & Fernando Muñoz‐Bullón, 2005. "Temporary Help Agencies and Occupational Mobility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(2), pages 163-180, April.
    5. Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-1240, September.
    6. Kostas G. Mavromaras & Helmut Rudolph, 1998. "Temporary Separations and Firm Size in the German Labour Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(2), pages 215-225, May.
    7. Gerard J. van den Berg, 1990. "Nonstationarity in Job Search Theory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(2), pages 255-277.
    8. Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Layoffs, Recall and the Duration of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Narendranathan, W & Stewart, Mark B, 1993. "How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 361-381, Oct.-Dec..
    10. Lippman, Steven A & McCall, John J, 1976. "The Economics of Job Search: A Survey: Part I," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(2), pages 155-189, June.
    11. Katz, Lawrence F. & Meyer, Bruce D., 1990. "The impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 45-72, February.
    12. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-283, August.
    13. Small, Kenneth A & Hsiao, Cheng, 1985. "Multinomial Logit Specification Tests," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 619-627, October.
    14. Mavromaras, Kostas G & Rudolph, Helmut, 1998. "Temporary Separations and Firm Size in the German Labour Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(2), pages 215-225, May.
    15. Roed, Knut & Nordberg, Morten, 2003. "Temporary layoffs and the duration of unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 381-398, June.
    16. Martin S. Feldstein, 1975. "The Importance of Temporary Layoffs: An Empirical Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(3), pages 725-745.
    17. Baily, Martin Neil, 1977. "On the Theory of Layoffs and Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1043-1063, July.
    18. Brigitte Dormont & Denis Fougère & Ana Prieto, 2001. "L'effet de l'allocation unique dégressive sur la reprise d'emploi," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 343(1), pages 3-28.
    19. Feldstein, Martin S, 1978. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Temporary Layoff Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 834-846, December.
    20. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    21. Fredrik Jansson, 2002. "Rehires and Unemployment Duration in the Swedish Labour Market — New Evidence of Temporary Layoffs," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 16(2), pages 311-345, June.
    22. Lauer, Charlotte, 2003. "Education and Unemployment: A French-German Comparison," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-34, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    23. Dale T. Mortensen, 1990. "A Structural Model of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Effects on the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Yoram Weiss & Gideon Fishelson (ed.), Advances in the Theory and Measurement of Unemployment, chapter 3, pages 57-81, Palgrave Macmillan.
    24. Miguel Malo, 2005. "A Political Economy Model of Workers Representation: The Case of Union Elections in Spain," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 115-134, January.
    25. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1979. "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployemnt: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1), pages 13-72.
    26. Stephen P. Jenkins & Carlos García‐Serrano, 2004. "The Relationship between Unemployment Benefits and Re‐employment Probabilities: Evidence from Spain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(2), pages 239-260, May.
    27. JOSE Ma ARRANZ & Juan Muro, 2004. "Recurrent unemployment, welfare benefits and heterogeneity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 423-441.
    28. Miles Corak, 1996. "Unemployment Insurance, Temporary Layoffs, and Recall Expectations," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 1-7, April.
    29. Viktor Steiner, 2001. "Unemployment Persistence in the West German Labour Market: Negative Duration Dependence or Sorting?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(1), pages 91-113, February.
    30. Peter Jensen & Michael Svarer, 2003. "Short- and long-term unemployment: How do temporary layoffs affect this distinction?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 23-44, January.
    31. Rudolf Winter‐Ebmer, 1998. "Potential Unemployment Benefit Duration and Spell Length: Lessons from a Quasi‐Experiment in Austria," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(1), pages 33-45, February.
    32. Feldstein, Martin S, 1976. "Temporary Layoffs in the Theory of Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 937-957, October.
    33. Lippman, Steven A & McCall, John J, 1976. "The Economics of Job Search: A Survey," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 347-368, September.
    34. Alfonso Alba-Ramírez, 1998. "Re-employment probabilities of young workers in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 22(2), pages 201-224, May.
    35. D'Addio, Anna Cristina & Rosholm, Michael, 2005. "Exits from temporary jobs in Europe: A competing risks analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 449-468, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Camarero Garcia, Sebastian & Hansch, Michelle, 2020. "The effect of unemployment insurance benefits on (self-)employment: Two sides of the same coin?," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. José Arranz & Carlos García-Serrano, 2014. "Duration and Recurrence of Unemployment Benefits," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 271-295, September.
    3. Rainer Eppel & Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer, 2017. "Die Auswirkungen temporärer Layoffs auf die weitere Erwerbskarriere der betroffenen Arbeitskräfte," WIFO Working Papers 539, WIFO.
    4. Ting Meng & Richard Carew & Wojciech J. Florkowski, 2020. "Determinants of the grant lag and the surrender lag of horticultural crop plant breeders’ rights applications: Survival analysis with competing risks," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(4), pages 489-512, December.
    5. Julien Albertini & Xavier Fairise, 2018. "Layoffs, recalls and experience rating," Working Papers halshs-01879560, HAL.
    6. Rebollo-Sanz, Yolanda, 2012. "Unemployment insurance and job turnover in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 403-426.
    7. Albertini, Julien & Fairise, Xavier & Terriau, Anthony, 2023. "Unemployment insurance, recalls, and experience rating," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Détang-Dessendre, Cécile & Gaigné, Carl, 2009. "Unemployment duration, city size, and the tightness of the labor market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 266-276, May.
    9. Oskar Jost, 2022. "See you soon: fixed-term contracts, unemployment and recalls in Germany—a linked employer–employee analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 601-626, August.
    10. Yolanda Rebollo-Sanz & J. García-Pérez, 2015. "Are unemployment benefits harmful to the stability of working careers? The case of Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 1-41, March.
    11. Catalina Jordi & Miguel Manjón, 2014. "The determinants of urban (un)employment duration: evidence from Barcelona," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(2), pages 515-556, September.
    12. Alfonso Alba & Jose Maria Arranz & Fernando Muñoz-Bullón, 2012. "Re-employment probabilities of unemployment benefit recipients," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(28), pages 3645-3664, October.
    13. José Arranz & Carlos García-Serrano & Luis Toharia, 2010. "The Influence of Temporary Employment on Unemployment Exits in a Competing Risks Framework," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 67-90, March.
    14. Duncan McVicar & Mark Wooden & Felix Leung & Ning Li, 2016. "Work-Related Training and the Probability of Transitioning from Non-Permanent to Permanent Employment," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 54(3), pages 623-646, September.
    15. Michael Wiberg & Staffan Marklund & Kristina Alexanderson, 2017. "Transitions Between Compensated Work Disability, Joblessness, and Self-Sufficiency: A Cohort Study 1997–2010 of Those Jobless in 1995," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(1), pages 85-107, February.
    16. Rainer Eppel & Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer & Christine Zulehner, 2015. "Temporäre Layoffs – Das kurzfristige Aussetzen von Arbeitsverhältnissen und seine Bedeutung für die Arbeitslosigkeit," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(12), pages 885-897, December.
    17. Blázquez, Maite & Herrarte, Ainhoa & Sáez, Felipe, 2012. "Occupational matching: The case of job seekers inscribed at Public Employment Offices," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/02, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alba, Alfonso & Arranz, José M. & Muñoz-Bullón, Fernando, 2006. "Unemployment duration, unemployment benefits and recalls," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb066218, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    2. Alfonso Alba & Jose Maria Arranz & Fernando Muñoz-Bullón, 2012. "Re-employment probabilities of unemployment benefit recipients," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(28), pages 3645-3664, October.
    3. Albertini, Julien & Fairise, Xavier & Terriau, Anthony, 2023. "Unemployment insurance, recalls, and experience rating," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Roed, Knut & Nordberg, Morten, 2003. "Temporary layoffs and the duration of unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 381-398, June.
    5. Julien Albertini & Xavier Fairise, 2018. "Layoffs, recalls and experience rating," Working Papers halshs-01879560, HAL.
    6. Dragana Djurdjevic, 2005. "Unemployment and Under-Employment: The Case of Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 141(I), pages 23-70, March.
    7. World Bank, 2005. "Bosnia and Herzegovina : Labor Market Update, The Role of Industrial Relations," World Bank Publications - Reports 8461, The World Bank Group.
    8. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pc:p:3085-3139 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Roed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2005. "Unemployment duration and economic incentives--a quasi random-assignment approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1799-1825, October.
    10. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    11. Peter Fredriksson & Bertil Holmlund, 2006. "Improving Incentives in Unemployment Insurance: A Review of Recent Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 357-386, July.
    12. Rebollo-Sanz, Yolanda, 2012. "Unemployment insurance and job turnover in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 403-426.
    13. Lars Pico Geerdsen & Stéphanie Vincent Lyk-Jensen & Cecilie Dohlmann Weatherall, 2018. "Accelerating the transition to employment at benefit exhaustion: still possible after four years of unemployment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1107-1135, May.
    14. José Arranz & Carlos García-Serrano, 2014. "Duration and Recurrence of Unemployment Benefits," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 271-295, September.
    15. Oskar Jost, 2022. "See you soon: fixed-term contracts, unemployment and recalls in Germany—a linked employer–employee analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 601-626, August.
    16. Brigitte Dormont & Denis Fougère & Ana Prieto, 2001. "L'effet de l'allocation unique dégressive sur la reprise d'emploi," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 343(1), pages 3-28.
    17. Tan Wang & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2016. "Risk Aversion, Uncertainty, Unemployment Insurance Benefit and Duration of "Wait" Unemployment," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(1), pages 1-34, May.
    18. J. Ignacio García‐Pérez & Fernando Muñoz‐Bullón, 2011. "Transitions into Permanent Employment in Spain: An Empirical Analysis for Young Workers," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 103-143, March.
    19. Rafael Lalive & Josef Zweim�ller, "undated". "Benefit Entitlement and the Labor Market: Evidence from a Large-Scale Policy Change," IEW - Working Papers 105, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    20. Anne Lauringson, 2011. "Disincentive effects of unemployment insurance benefits: maximum benefit duration versus benefit level," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 25-50, July.
    21. Liebig, Stefan & Hense, Andrea, 2007. "Bedingungen und Folgen betriebsbedingter Entlassungen mit anschließender Wiederbeschäftigung in Deutschland," Duisburger Beiträge zur soziologischen Forschung 4/2007, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Sociology.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:wb060301. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.business.uc3m.es/es/index .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.