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Temporary layoffs and split population models


  • Kostas G. Mavromaras

    (University of Aberdeen, UK)

  • Chris D. Orme

    (University of Manchester, UK)


This paper develops and estimates a split population model for the duration of temporary layoffs in the German labour market; the population being split according to whether a layoff is temporary or permanent. A flexible piecewise constant hazard is employed and the recall propensity is used to condition the duration of a temporary layoff. The distinction between factors that influence the recall propensity and factors that influence the duration of a temporary layoff is shown to be of empirical significance. The results of the paper are used to evaluate implicit contract and search theories of temporary layoffs. The paper suggests that implicit contracts can explain the behaviour of unemployed workers with high worker-firm attachment whilst search can explain the behaviour of workers with low worker-firm attachment. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Kostas G. Mavromaras & Chris D. Orme, 2004. "Temporary layoffs and split population models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 49-67.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:19:y:2004:i:1:p:49-67
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.734

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    2. Katz, Lawrence F. & Meyer, Bruce D., 1990. "The impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 45-72, February.
    3. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    4. Jaggia, Sanjiv & Trivedi, Pravin K., 1994. "Joint and separate score tests for state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 273-291.
    5. Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
    6. Hunt, Jennifer, 1995. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 88-120, January.
    7. Chesher, Andrew D, 1984. "Testing for Neglected Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 865-872, July.
    8. Blundell, Richard & Meghir, Costas, 1987. "Bivariate alternatives to the Tobit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 179-200.
    9. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    10. Feldstein, Martin S, 1976. "Temporary Layoffs in the Theory of Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 937-957, October.
    11. Feldstein, Martin S, 1978. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Temporary Layoff Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 834-846, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alfonso Alba & Jose Maria Arranz & Fernando Muñoz-Bullón, 2012. "Re-employment probabilities of unemployment benefit recipients," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(28), pages 3645-3664, October.
    2. Virve Ollikainen & Tomi Kyyrä, 2006. "To Search or Not to Search? The Effects of UI Benefit Extension for the Elderly Unemployed," Discussion Papers 400, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
    3. World Bank, 2005. "Bosnia and Herzegovina : Labor Market Update, The Role of Industrial Relations," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8461, The World Bank.
    4. Alba-Ramirez, Alfonso & Arranz, Jose M. & Munoz-Bullon, Fernando, 2007. "Exits from unemployment: Recall or new job," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 788-810, October.
    5. Núria Rodríquez-Planas, 2011. "Displacement, Signaling, and Recall Expectations," Working Papers 550, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Kyyrä, Tomi & Ollikainen, Virve, 2008. "To search or not to search? The effects of UI benefit extension for the older unemployed," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 2048-2070, October.

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