Good Skills in Bad Times: Cyclical Skill Mismatch and the Long-term Effects of Graduating in a Recession
We show that cyclical skill mismatch, defined as mismatch between the skills supplied by college graduates and skills demanded by hiring industries, is an important mechanism behind persistent career loss from graduating in recessions. Using Norwegian data, we find a strong countercyclical pattern of skill mismatch among college graduates. Initial labor market conditions have a declining but persistent effect on the probability of mismatch early in their careers. We provide a simple model of industry mobility that is consistent with our empirical findings. The initially mismatched graduates are also more vulnerable to business cycle variations at the time of graduation.
|Date of creation:||17 Aug 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +47 55 959 277
Fax: 5595 9100
Web page: http://www.nhh.no/sam/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kondo, Ayako, 2007. "Does the first job really matter? State dependency in employment status in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 379-402, September.
- Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
- Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2013. "Job Selection and Wages over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 771-803, April.
- Beffy, Magali & Fougère, Denis & Maurel, Arnaud, 2009.
"Choosing the Field of Study in Post-Secondary Education: Do Expected Earnings Matter?,"
IZA Discussion Papers
4127, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Magali Beffy & Denis Fougère & Arnaud Maurel, 2012. "Choosing the Field of Study in Postsecondary Education: Do Expected Earnings Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 334-347, February.
- Magali BEFFY & Denis FOUGERE & Arnaud MAUREL, 2009. "Choosing the Field of Study in Post-Secondary Education : Do Expected Earnings Matter ?," Working Papers 2009-14, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Leuven, Edwin & Oosterbeek, Hessel, 2011. "Overeducation and Mismatch in the Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 5523, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Yuji Genda & Ayako Kondo & Souichi Ohta, 2010. "Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(1).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2012_016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dagny Hanne Kristiansen)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.