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Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”

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  • James M. Raymo

    (University of Wisconsin–Madison)

  • Akihisa Shibata

    (Kyoto University)

Abstract

In this study, we examine relationships of unemployment and nonstandard employment with fertility. We focus on Japan, a country characterized by a prolonged economic downturn, significant increases in both unemployment and nonstandard employment, a strong link between marriage and childbearing, and pronounced gender differences in economic roles and opportunities. Analyses of retrospective employment, marriage, and fertility data for the period 1990–2006 indicate that changing employment circumstances for men are associated with lower levels of marriage, while changes in women’s employment are associated with higher levels of marital fertility. The latter association outweighs the former, and results of counterfactual standardization analyses indicate that Japan’s total fertility rate would have been 10 % to 20 % lower than the observed rate after 1995 if aggregate- and individual-level employment conditions had remained unchanged from the 1980s. We discuss the implications of these results in light of ongoing policy efforts to promote family formation and research on temporal and regional variation in men’s and women’s roles within the family.

Suggested Citation

  • James M. Raymo & Akihisa Shibata, 2017. "Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2301-2329, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0614-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-017-0614-y
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    4. Teruyama, Hiroshi & Goto, Yasuo & Lechevalier, Sebastien, 2018. "Firm-level labor demand for and macroeconomic increases in non-regular workers in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 90-105.
    5. Wooden, Mark & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Mooi-Reci, Irma, 2021. "The Differential Impacts of Contingent Employment on Fertility: Evidence from Australia," IZA Discussion Papers 14850, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Mary C. Brinton & Ekaterina Hertog & Eunmi Mun, 2021. "Singlehood in contemporary Japan: Rating, dating, and waiting for a good match," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(10), pages 239-276.
    7. Wei-hsin Yu & Yuko Hara, 2020. "Job characteristics, marital intentions, and partner-seeking actions: Longitudinal evidence from Japan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(52), pages 1509-1544.
    8. Hiromi HARA & Núria RODRà GUEZ-PLANAS, 2021. "Long-Term Consequences of Teaching Gender Roles: Evidence from Desegregating Industrial Arts and Home Economics in Japan," Discussion papers 21072, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Daniele Vignoli & Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Elena Pirani & Alessandra Minello, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: Narratives of the Future," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    10. Ayako KONDO, 2024. "Subtle Completed Fertility Recovery in Cohorts Who Entered the Labor Market during the Deep Recession in Japan," Discussion papers 24063, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Hara, Hiromi & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2021. "Long-Term Consequences of Teaching Gender Roles: Evidence from Desegregating Industrial Arts and Home Economics in Japan," IZA Discussion Papers 14611, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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