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The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility

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  • Hofmann, Barbara
  • Hohmeyer, Katrin

Abstract

Many studies show that fertility decreases as economic conditions worsen. Evidence on socio-economic subgroups is sparse. We investigate whether a downturn at college graduation affects subsequent fertility. Using data from the German National Educational Panel Study covering a more than 40-years observation period, we find that a recession at graduation affects female but not male fertility timing. A downturn at graduation increases the transition rate to first pregnancy among female graduates significantly. This effect is driven by females older than 24 years at graduation and is strongest in the first years after graduation and then decreases over time. We also find a downturn to decrease the probability of holding a degree-adequate job in the first years after graduation. These findings suggest that female graduates take advantage of decreased opportunity costs in a recession. We do not find an effect of a downturn at graduation on completed fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Hofmann, Barbara & Hohmeyer, Katrin, 2016. "The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:55:y:2016:i:c:p:88-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2016.09.004
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    Cited by:

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    8. Pierre Pora & Lionel Wilner, 2025. "Dissecting Child Penalties," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 78(5), pages 859-884, October.
    9. Yue Yin & Ye Jiang, 2023. "Fertility Effects of Labor Market Conditions at Graduation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(4), pages 120-152, July.
    10. Sjögren, Anna & Mattias , Mattias & Hall, Caroline & Holmlund, Helena & Lundin, Martin & Mühlrad, Hanna & Öckert, Björn, 2021. "Swedish children and youth during the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2021:3, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    11. Vincent Jerald Ramos & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Enrique Alonso-Perez & Paul Gellert & Jan Paul Heisig & Julie Lorraine O’Sullivan, 2025. "Future Caregiving Responsibilities, Employment Uncertainties, and Expected Childbearing Behavior: Survey Experimental Evidence from Germany," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(5), pages 1-27, October.
    12. James M. Raymo & Akihisa Shibata, 2017. "Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2301-2329, December.
    13. Diana Alessandrini & Bharat Diwakar, 2023. "The Intergenerational Effects of Recessions," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(4), pages 1060-1087, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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