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Trends and Determinants of Fertility Rates: The Role of Policies


  • Anna Christina D'Addio
  • Marco Mira d'Ercole


This report tries to explain observed changes in fertility rates across OECD countries, with an emphasis on socio-economic considerations. It aims to extend the understanding of fertility-related behaviours in different ways: first, by explaining recent developments in fertility rates and their relationships to other social drivers; second, by developing and testing new and expanded models to explain the cross-country variation in fertility rates due to labour markets, social and fiscal policies, and individual characteristics; third, by exploring which polices, through their effects on particular variables at micro and macro levels, have the biggest effect on fertility rates. Ce rapport essaye d’expliquer les évolutions observées dans les taux de fécondité dans les pays de l’OCDE, l’accent étant mis sur un angle socio-économique. Il tend à faire comprendre les comportements liés à la fécondité de plusieurs manières : premièrement, en expliquant les évolutions récentes des taux de fécondité et leur relation avec les autres facteurs sociaux ; deuxièmement, en développant et en testant des modèles nouveaux et élargis afin d’expliquer les différences des taux de fécondité observées dans les pays en fonction des caractéristiques du marché du travail, des politiques sociales et fiscales et des caractéristiques individuelles ; troisièmement, en essayant d’identifier les politiques qui ont la plus grande incidence sur les taux de fécondité de par l’effet qu’elles ont sur des variables particulières aux niveaux micro et macro.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Christina D'Addio & Marco Mira d'Ercole, 2005. "Trends and Determinants of Fertility Rates: The Role of Policies," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 27, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaab:27-en

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    15. David W. Kalisch & Tetsuya Aman & Libbie A. Buchele, 1998. "Social and Health Policies in OECD Countries: A Survey of Current Programmes and Recent Developments," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 33, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Modena & Fabio Sabatini, 2012. "I would if I could: precarious employment and childbearing intentions in Italy," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 77-97, March.
    2. Sabatini Fabio, 2009. "Work status and family planning: Insights from the Italian puzzle," wp.comunite 0058, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    3. Braga, Michela & Scervini, Francesco, 2017. "The performance of politicians: The effect of gender quotas," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Samuel H. Preston & Caroline Sten Hartnett, 2008. "The Future of American Fertility," NBER Working Papers 14498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kimura, Masako & Yasui, Daishin, 2009. "Public provision of private child goods," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(5-6), pages 741-751, June.
    6. Herwig Immervoll & David Barber, 2005. "Can Parents Afford to Work?: Childcare Costs, Tax-Benefit Policies and Work Incentives," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 31, OECD Publishing.
    7. Schrage, Andrea, 2007. "Low Fertility of Highly Educated Women: The Impact of Child Care Infrastructure," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 421, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Robert Drago & Katina Sawyer & Karina M Shreffler & Diana Warren & Mark Wooden, 2009. "Did Australia's Baby Bonus Increase the Fertility Rate?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n01, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Hofmann, Barbara & Hohmeyer, Katrin, 2016. "The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-102.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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