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Who is overeducated and why? Probit and dynamic mixed multinomial logit analyses of vertical mismatch in East and West Germany

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  • Christina Boll
  • Julian Sebastian Leppin
  • Klaus Schömann

Abstract

Overeducation potentially signals a productivity loss. With Socio-Economic Panel data from 1984 to 2011 we identify drivers of educational mismatch for East and West medium and highly educated Germans. Addressing measurement error, state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity, we run dynamic mixed multinomial logit models for three different measures of educational mismatch. We find that overeducation is mainly state dependent. Results largely hinge on the selected specification. Yet, robust results are that employment experience decreases and past unemployment increases the mismatch risk. An employer change seldomly serves as a suitable escape strategy, nor does a dual qualification save graduates from entering overeducation.

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  • Christina Boll & Julian Sebastian Leppin & Klaus Schömann, 2016. "Who is overeducated and why? Probit and dynamic mixed multinomial logit analyses of vertical mismatch in East and West Germany," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 639-662, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:edecon:v:24:y:2016:i:6:p:639-662
    DOI: 10.1080/09645292.2016.1158787
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    Cited by:

    1. Boll, Christina & Lagemann, Andreas, 2018. "Das Erwerbsverhalten von Eltern mit Migrationshintergrund: SOEP-basierte Befunde und deren Implikationen für Hamburg," HWWI Policy Papers 112, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    2. Rossen Anja & Boll Christina & Wolf André, 2019. "Patterns of Overeducation in Europe: The Role of Field of Study," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 9(1), pages 1-48, June.
    3. Julian S. Leppin & Stefan Reitz, 2016. "The Role of a Changing Market Environment for Credit Default Swap Pricing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 209-223, July.
    4. Boll, Christina & Leppin, Julian & Rossen, Anja & Wolf, André, 2016. "Overeducation - New evidence for 25 European countries," IAB-Discussion Paper 201635, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Erdsiek, Daniel, 2017. "Dynamics of overqualification: Evidence from the early career of graduates," ZEW Discussion Papers 17-020, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Christina Boll & Julian Sebastian Leppin, 2016. "Differential Overeducation in East and West Germany: Extending Frank's Theory on Economic Returns Changes the Picture of Disadvantaged Women," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(4), pages 455-504, December.
    7. Bräuninger, Michael, 2014. "Tax sovereignty and feasibility of international regulations for tobacco tax policies," HWWI Research Papers 152, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    8. Mohammed Alzubaidi, 2020. "The impact of overeducation on job outcomes: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(4), pages 104-120, July.
    9. Esposito, Piero & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2022. "Educational mismatch and labour market transitions in Italy: Is there an unemployment trap?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 138-155.
    10. Christiana Charalambidou & Steven McIntosh, 2021. "Over‐education in Cyprus: Micro and macro determinants, persistence and state dependence. A dynamic panel analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(2), pages 172-189, March.
    11. Seuring, Till & Serneels, Pieter & Suhrcke, Marc, 2019. "The impact of diabetes on labour market outcomes in Mexico: A panel data and biomarker analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 252-261.
    12. Frodermann, Corinna & Schmucker, Alexandra & Müller, Dana, 2018. "Entgeltgleichheit zwischen Frauen und Männern in mittleren und großen Betrieben," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201803, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    13. Golo Henseke, 2019. "Against the Grain? Assessing Graduate Labour Market Trends in Germany Through a Task-Based Indicator of Graduate Jobs," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 809-840, January.
    14. Baran Jan, 2018. "A side effect of a university boom: rising incidence of overeducation among tertiary educated workers in Poland," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 4(2), pages 41-63, June.
    15. Boll, Christina & Lagemann, Andreas, 2018. "Does culture trump money? Employment and childcare use of migrant and non-migrant mothers of pre-school children in Germany," HWWI Research Papers 187, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    16. Boll, Christina & Lagemann, Andreas, 2018. "Does Culture Trump Money? Erwerbsverhalten und Kitanutzung von Müttern mit und ohne Migrationshintergrund in Deutschland," HWWI Research Papers 188, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    17. Cizek, Pavel & Sadikoglu, Serhan, 2022. "Nonseparable Panel Models with Index Structure and Correlated Random Effects," Other publications TiSEM 7899deb9-0eda-47e6-a3b8-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Hofmann, Barbara & Hohmeyer, Katrin, 2016. "The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-102.
    19. Jan Aleksander Baran, 2020. "Are Poles stuck in overeducation? Individual dynamics of educational mismatch in Poland," Working Papers 2020-23, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    20. Piero Esposito & Sergio Scicchitano, 2023. "Drivers of skill mismatch among Italian graduates: the role of personality traits," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(40), pages 4642-4663, August.
    21. Boll, Christina & Lagemann, Andreas, 2019. "Das Erwerbsverhalten von Eltern mit Migrationshintergrund: SOEP-basierte Befunde und deren Implikationen für Hamburg. Kurzfassung," HWWI Policy Papers 113, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    22. Muñoz de Bustillo, Rafael & Sarkar, Sudipa & Sebastián, Raquel & Antón, José-Ignacio, 2018. "Education mismatch in Europe at the turn of the century: Measurement, intensity and evolution," MPRA Paper 85779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Hanan Morsy & Adamon N. Mukasa, 2019. "Working Paper 326 - Youth Jobs, Skill and Educational Mismatches in Africa," Working Paper Series 2452, African Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J71 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Discrimination - - - Hiring and Firing

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