IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/1946.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The role of a changing market environment for credit default swap pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Leppin, Julian S.
  • Reitz, Stefan

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of a changing market environment on the pricing of CDS spreads written on debt from EURO STOXX 50 firms. A Panel Smooth Transition Regression reveals that parameter estimates of standard CDS fundamentals are time-varying depending on current values of a set of variables such as ECB's systemic stress composite index, the Sentix index for current and future economics situation, and the VStoxx. These variables describe the market's transition between different regimens thereby reflecting the impact of substantial swings in agents' risk perception on CDS spreads. Overall, our results confirm the importance of nonlinearities in the pricing of risk derivatives during tranquil and turbulent times.

Suggested Citation

  • Leppin, Julian S. & Reitz, Stefan, 2014. "The role of a changing market environment for credit default swap pricing," Kiel Working Papers 1946, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1946
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/100077/1/791668568.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hohenleitner, Ingrid & Hillmann, Katja, 2012. "Impact of Benefit Sanctions on Unemployment Outflow - Evidence from German Survey Data," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66055, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    3. Reich, Nora, 2012. "Fathers' childcare: The difference between participation and amount of time," HWWI Research Papers 116, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    4. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    5. Houweling, Patrick & Vorst, Ton, 2005. "Pricing default swaps: Empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1200-1225, December.
    6. Kuhlenkasper, Torben & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2017. "Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 610-621.
    7. Nicholas Vause, 2010. "Counterparty risk and contract volumes in the credit default swap market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    8. Zierahn, Ulrich, 2012. "Monocentric cities, endogenous agglomeration, and unemployment disparities," HWWI Research Papers 130, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    9. Wolf, André & Wenzel, Lars, 2015. "Welfare implications of power rationing: An application to Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 53-62.
    10. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    11. Lay, Jann & Ondraczek, Janosch & Stoever, Jana, 2013. "Renewables in the energy transition: Evidence on solar home systems and lighting fuel choice in Kenya," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 350-359.
    12. Skinner, Frank S. & Townend, Timothy G., 2002. "An empirical analysis of credit default swaps," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 297-309.
    13. Erichsen, Jan-Ove & Schlitte, Friso & Schulze, Sven, 2014. "Entwicklung und Determinanten des Siedlungsabfallaufkommens in Deutschland," HWWI Research Papers 151, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    14. Cao, Charles & Yu, Fan & Zhong, Zhaodong, 2010. "The information content of option-implied volatility for credit default swap valuation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 321-343, August.
    15. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kowalewski, Julia, 2012. "Inter-industrial relations and sectoral employment development in German regions," HWWI Research Papers 127, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    17. Young Ho Eom, 2004. "Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 499-544.
    18. Christina Boll & Julian Sebastian Leppin & Klaus Schömann, 2016. "Who is overeducated and why? Probit and dynamic mixed multinomial logit analyses of vertical mismatch in East and West Germany," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 639-662, November.
    19. Friso Schlitte & Sven Schulze, 2014. "Siedlungsabfallaufkommen in Deutschland," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 94(9), pages 680-682, September.
    20. Augustin de Coulon & Dragos Radu & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2016. "Pane e Cioccolata: The Impact of Native Attitudes on Return Migration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 253-281, May.
    21. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    22. Paola Conconi & Giovanni Facchini & Max F. Steinhardt & Maurizio Zanardi, 2020. "The political economy of trade and migration: Evidence from the U.S. Congress," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 250-278, July.
    23. Otto, Alkis Henri & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2014. "Immigration and election outcomes — Evidence from city districts in Hamburg," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 67-79.
    24. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2013. "Business lending rate pass-through in the Eurozone: monetary policy transmission before and after the financial crash," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 973-985.
    25. Naujoks, Daniel, 2012. "Does dual citizenship increase naturalization? Evidence from Indian immigrants in the US," HWWI Research Papers 125, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    26. Breitenfellner, Bastian & Wagner, Niklas, 2012. "Explaining aggregate credit default swap spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 18-29.
    27. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Protection against major catastrophes: An economic perspective," HWWI Research Papers 137, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    28. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    29. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5099-5131, December.
    30. Lof, Matthijs, 2012. "Heterogeneity in stock prices: A STAR model with multivariate transition function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1845-1854.
    31. Lars Wenzel & Andr Wolf, 2014. "Changing Patterns of Electricity Usage in European Manufacturing: A Decomposition Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 516-530.
    32. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    33. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    34. Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Enrico Sette, 2012. "Bank balance sheets and the transmission of financial shocks to borrowers: evidence from the 2007-2008 crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 848, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    35. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2010. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-753, April.
    36. Jan Wedemeier, 2011. "Creative professionals and high-skilled agents': Polarization of employment growth?," ERSA conference papers ersa11p489, European Regional Science Association.
    37. Chan, Kam Fong & Marsden, Alastair, 2014. "Macro risk factors of credit default swap indices in a regime-switching framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 285-308.
    38. Ralf Becker & Denise R. Osborn, 2012. "Weighted Smooth Transition Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 795-811, August.
    39. Wolf, André & Wenzel, Lars, 2016. "Regional diversity in the costs of electricity outages: Results for German counties," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(PB), pages 195-205.
    40. Anwar, Mumtaz & Ahmad, Munazza, 2012. "Political determinants of budget deficit in Pakistan: An empirical investigation," HWWI Research Papers 135, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    41. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    42. Haibin Zhu, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 211-235, June.
    43. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
    44. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Short-term forecasting with business surveys: Evidence for German IHK data at federal state level," HWWI Research Papers 140, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    45. Reich, Nora & Boll, Christina & Leppin, Julian Sebastian, 2012. "Fathers' childcare and parental leave policies: Evidence from Western European Countries and Canada," HWWI Research Papers 115, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    46. Antonio Di Cesare & Giovanni Guazzarotti, 2010. "An analysis of the determinants of credit default swap spread changes before and during the subprime financial turmoil," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 749, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    47. Galil, Koresh & Shapir, Offer Moshe & Amiram, Dan & Ben-Zion, Uri, 2014. "The determinants of CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 271-282.
    48. Kovacheva, Vesela & Vogel, Dita, 2012. "Weniger Rechtsverletzungen durch mehr Informationen? Arbeitsmarkterfahrungen und Informationsbedarf bulgarisch- und albanischsprachiger Zugewanderter in Berlin," HWWI Research Papers 120, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    49. Arora, Navneet & Gandhi, Priyank & Longstaff, Francis A., 2012. "Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 280-293.
    50. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    51. Berlemann, Michael & Enkelmann, Soeren & Kuhlenkasper, Torben, 2012. "Unraveling the complexity of US presidential approval: A multi-dimensional semi-parametric approach," HWWI Research Papers 118, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    52. Biermann, Franziska, 2012. "The impact of distance in seaborne trade: An analysis of bilateral container transport flows," HWWI Research Papers 134, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    53. Bräuninger, Michael, 2014. "Tax sovereignty and feasibility of international regulations for tobacco tax policies," HWWI Research Papers 152, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    54. Kowalewski, Julia, 2012. "Regionalization of national input-output tables: Empirical evidence on the use of the FLQ formula," HWWI Research Papers 126, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    55. Frei, Xenia & Kowalewski, Julia, 2013. "Sektorale und regionale Betroffenheit durch den Klimawandel am Beispiel der Metropolregion Hamburg," HWWI Research Papers 139, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    56. Leppin Julian S., 2014. "The Estimation of Reservation Wages: A Simulation-Based Comparison," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(5), pages 603-634, October.
    57. Ulrich Zierahn, 2012. "The effect of market access on the labor market: Evidence from German reunification," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201239, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    58. Massacci, Daniele, 2013. "A switching model with flexible threshold variable: With an application to nonlinear dynamics in stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 199-203.
    59. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment‐Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
    60. Jahn, Malte, 2013. "Economics of extreme weather events in cities: Terminology and regional impact models," HWWI Research Papers 143, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    61. Wang, Hao & Zhou, Hao & Zhou, Yi, 2013. "Credit default swap spreads and variance risk premia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3733-3746.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhenxi Chen & Stefan Reitz, 2020. "Dynamics of the European sovereign bonds and the identification of crisis periods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2761-2781, June.
    2. Dimpfl Thomas & Peter Franziska J., 2016. "Price discovery in the markets for credit risk: a Markov switching approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 233-249, June.
    3. Demetrescu, Matei & Leppin, Julian Sebastian & Reitz, Stefan, 2017. "Homogenous vs. heterogenous transition functions in smooth transition regressions: A LM-type test," Kiel Working Papers 2094, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Paulo V. Carvalho & José D. Curto & Rodrigo Primor, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2054-2072, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bräuninger, Michael, 2014. "Tax sovereignty and feasibility of international regulations for tobacco tax policies," HWWI Research Papers 152, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    2. Vöpel, Henning, 2013. "A Zidane clustering theorem: Why top players tend to play in one team and how the competitive balance can be restored," HWWI Research Papers 141, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    4. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta & Pilbeam, Keith, 2018. "The housing market and the credit default swap premium in the UK banking sector: A VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    6. Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2014. "Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 262-274.
    7. Hohenleitner, Ingrid & Hillmann, Katja, 2012. "Impact of Benefit Sanctions on Unemployment Outflow - Evidence from German Survey Data," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66055, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Roshanthi Dias, 2017. "The role of managerial risk-taking in the ‘rise and fall’ of the CDS market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57, pages 117-145, April.
    9. Cottrell, Simon & Yu, Xiao & Delpachitra, Sarath & Ma, Yihong, 2021. "What determines wholesale funding costs of the global systemically important banks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Stephen Zamore & Kwame Ohene Djan & Ilan Alon & Bersant Hobdari, 2018. "Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 811-835, March.
    11. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Safwan Mohd Nor & Nur Azura Sanusi & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar, 2018. "The Determinants of Credit Risk: Analysis of US Industry-level Indices," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1152-1165, October.
    12. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Do country-level financial structures explain bank-level CDS spreads?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 135-145.
    13. Sorin Gabriel Anton, 2011. "The Local Determinants Of Emerging Market Sovereign Cds Spreads In The Context Of The Debt Crisis. An Explanatory Study "," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 41-52, november.
    14. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2017. "Equity market information and credit risk signaling: A quantile cointegrating regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 48-59.
    15. Samaniego-Medina, Reyes & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & di Pietro, Filippo, 2016. "Determinants of bank CDS spreads in Europe," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Xiaoqing Fu & Matthew C. Li & Philip Molyneux, 2021. "Credit default swap spreads: market conditions, firm performance, and the impact of the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2203-2225, May.
    17. Lahiani, Amine & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Linkages between financial sector CDS spreads and macroeconomic influence in a nonlinear setting," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 443-456.
    18. Antonio Di Cesare & Giovanni Guazzarotti, 2010. "An analysis of the determinants of credit default swap spread changes before and during the subprime financial turmoil," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 749, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Reyes Samaniego-Medina & Clara Cardone-Riportella, 2014. "Examining what best explains corporate credit risk: accounting-based versus market-based models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 253-276, April.
    20. repec:pab:wpbsad:12.07 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Radu S. & Urga, Giovanni, 2015. "Trading strategies with implied forward credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 361-375.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CDS spreads; Financial Crisis; Panel Smooth Transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1946. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.