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Who Leaves and When? - Selective Outmigration of Immigrants from Germany

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  • Max Friedrich Steinhardt

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the outmigration behaviour of foreign-born immigrants. Our analysis is based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel covering the period 1984 to 2010. A unique feature of our paper is the use of new data from panel-drop out studies, which allows us to identify outmigration. As statistical technique, we employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of a Poisson-type Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM), which enables us to incorporate bivariate interaction effects. For Non-Turkish immigrants we find a u-shaped pattern between human capital endowment and outmigration. For Turkish immigrants, outmigration is characterized by a positive selfselection with respect to skill intensifying the initial negative selection process. In addition to this, family characteristics have strong effects on emigration decisions. Finally, our results highlight substantial variation in outmigration behaviour during the life cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2012. "Who Leaves and When? - Selective Outmigration of Immigrants from Germany," Discussion Papers 3, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
  • Handle: RePEc:cel:dpaper:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edin, Per-Anders & LaLonde, Robert J. & Åslund, Olof, 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 2000:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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    5. Göran Kauermann & Jean D. Opsomer, 2011. "Data-driven selection of the spline dimension in penalized spline regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 225-230.
    6. Rooth, Dan-Olof & Saarela, Jan, 2007. "Selection in migration and return migration: Evidence from micro data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 90-95, January.
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    12. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, June.
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    16. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
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    18. Renata Ivanova & Byeongju Jeong, 2011. "Why Don't Migrants with Secondary Education Return?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp449, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rosa Weber, 2015. "Does intermarriage change migrants’ preferences for the home country?," IZA Journal of Migration, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Hirsch, Boris & Jahn, Elke J. & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2013. "Does Better Pre-Migration Performance Accelerate Immigrants' Wage Assimilation?," IZA Discussion Papers 7240, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Hirsch, Boris & Jahn, Elke J. & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2014. "Do better pre-migration skills accelerate immigrants' wage assimilation?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 212-222.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emigration; Self-selection; German Socio-Economic Panel; Generalized Additive Mixed Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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