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Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany

  • Kuhlenkasper, Torben
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

This paper provides new evidence on the outmigration behaviour of foreign-born immigrants. Our analysis is based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel covering the period 1984 to 2010. A unique feature of our paper is the use of new data from panel-drop out studies, which allows us to identify outmigration. As statistical technique, we employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of a Poisson-type Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM), which enables us to incorporate bivariate interaction effects. For Non-Turkish immigrants we find a u-shaped pattern between human capital endowment and outmigration. For Turkish immigrants, outmigration is characterized by a positive self-selection with respect to skill intensifying the initial negative selection process. In addition to this, family characteristics have strong effects on emigration decisions. Finally, our results highlight substantial variation in outmigration behaviour during the life cycle.

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Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) in its series HWWI Research Papers with number 128.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:128
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  1. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
  2. Nekby, Lena, 2004. "The Emigration of Immigrants, Return vs. Onward Migration: Evidence from Sweden," Research Papers in Economics 2004:7, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  3. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
  4. Michael C. Burda & Wolfgang Härdle & Marlene Müller & Axel Werwatz, 1998. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 525-541.
  5. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521780506 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 1994. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," NBER Working Papers 4913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521785167 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Edin, P.-A. & Lalonde, R.J. & Aslund, O., 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Papers 2000-13, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  9. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, 06.
  10. Jennifer Hunt, 2006. "Staunching Emigration from East Germany: Age and the Determinants of Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1014-1037, 09.
  11. Arin, K. Peren & Berlemann, Michael & Koray, Faik & Kuhlenkasper, Torben, 2011. "The taxation-growth-nexus revisited," HWWI Research Papers 104, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  12. Göran Kauermann & Jean D. Opsomer, 2011. "Data-driven selection of the spline dimension in penalized spline regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 225-230.
  13. Rooth, Dan-Olof & Saarela, Jan, 2007. "Selection in migration and return migration: Evidence from micro data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 90-95, January.
  14. Simon N. Wood, 2003. "Thin plate regression splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 95-114.
  15. Renata Ivanova & Byeongju Jeong, 2011. "Why Don't Migrants with Secondary Education Return?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp449, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
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