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Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany

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  • Kuhlenkasper, Torben
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

Abstract

Return migration is a major element of international migration flows. The objective of this paper is to provide new micro-data-based evidence on the structural pattern of return migration. We use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and employ a flexible semiparametric model, which allows us to estimate bivariate interaction effects. This enables us to analyze variation in emigration behavior over the life cycle. For the majority of migrants, we find that return migration is highly likely during the transition into retirement, implying that migrants spend their savings and pensions in their home country. For labor migrants, return migration intensifies the skill selection of the original immigration flow. Furthermore, we find a strong influence of family characteristics on return migration. Our analysis demonstrates that outmigration is influenced by economic and non-economic factors and highlights that migrants incorporate the mobility costs of family members into their individual return decisions.

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  • Kuhlenkasper, Torben & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2017. "Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 610-621.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:41:y:2017:i:4:p:610-621
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2017.01.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Amelie F. Constant, 2019. "Return, Circular, and Onward Migration Decisions in a Knowledge Society," CESifo Working Paper Series 7913, CESifo.
    2. Dean Fantazzini & Julia Pushchelenko & Alexey Mironenkov & Alexey Kurbatskii, 2021. "Forecasting Internal Migration in Russia Using Google Trends: Evidence from Moscow and Saint Petersburg," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-30, October.
    3. Constant, Amelie F., 2020. "Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 446, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Eric Schuss, 2020. "Substantial Labor Market Effects of the Residency Status," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 993-1026, December.
    5. Berbée, Paul & Stuhler, Jan, 2023. "The integration of migrants in the German labor market: Evidence over 50 years," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-020, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Giulia Bettin & Eralba Cela & Tineke Fokkema, 2018. "Return intentions over the life course: Evidence on the effects of life events from a longitudinal sample of first- and second-generation Turkish migrants in Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(38), pages 1009-1038.
    7. Julian S. Leppin & Stefan Reitz, 2016. "The Role of a Changing Market Environment for Credit Default Swap Pricing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 209-223, July.
    8. Steinhardt, Max F., 2018. "The Impact of Xenophobic Violence on the Integration of Immigrants," IZA Discussion Papers 11781, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Elena Samarsky, 2020. "Who is Thinking of Leaving Germany? The Role of Postmaterialism, Risk Attitudes, and Life-Satisfaction on Emigration Intentions of German Nationals," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1066, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    10. Claudia Diehl & Elisabeth Liebau, 2014. "Turning Back to Turkey - or Turning the Back to Germany?: Remigration Intentions and Behavior of Turkish Immigrants in Germany between 1984 and 2011," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 637, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    11. Rosa Weber, 2015. "Does intermarriage change migrants’ preferences for the home country?," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    12. Vöpel, Henning, 2013. "A Zidane clustering theorem: Why top players tend to play in one team and how the competitive balance can be restored," HWWI Research Papers 141, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    13. Akay, Alpaslan & Brausmann, Alexandra & Djajić, Slobodan & Kırdar, Murat G., 2021. "Purchasing-power-parity and the saving behavior of temporary migrants," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    14. Hirsch, Boris & Jahn, Elke J. & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2014. "Do better pre-migration skills accelerate immigrants' wage assimilation?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 212-222.
    15. Hohenleitner, Ingrid & Hillmann, Katja, 2012. "Impact of Benefit Sanctions on Unemployment Outflow - Evidence from German Survey Data," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66055, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Hirsch, Boris & Jahn, Elke J. & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2013. "Does Better Pre-Migration Performance Accelerate Immigrants' Wage Assimilation?," IZA Discussion Papers 7240, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Bräuninger, Michael, 2014. "Tax sovereignty and feasibility of international regulations for tobacco tax policies," HWWI Research Papers 152, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    18. Juan Galeano & Aurélie Pont & Philippe Wanner, 2022. "A Longitudinal Analysis of Naturalization and International Migration in Switzerland, 2011–2017," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 889-910, June.
    19. Diehl, Claudia & Liebau, Elisabeth, 2015. "Turning back to Turkey - or Turning the Back on Germany? Remigration Intentions and Behavior of Turkish Immigrants in Germany between 1984 and 2011," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 22-41.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return migration; Self-selection; German Socio-Economic Panel; Generalized additive mixed models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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