Bicycle commuting in Melbourne during the 2000s energy crisis: A semiparametric analysis of intraday volumes
Cycling is attracting renewed attention as a mode of transport in western urban environments, yet the determinants of usage are poorly understood. In this paper we investigate some of these using intraday bicycle volumes collected via induction loops located at ten bike paths in the city of Melbourne, Australia, between December 2005 and June 2008. The data are hourly counts at each location, with temporal and spatial disaggregation allowing for the impact of meteorology to be measured accurately for the first time. Moreover, during this period petrol prices varied dramatically and the data also provide a unique opportunity to assess the cross-price elasticity of demand for cycling. Over-dispersed Poisson regression models are used to model volumes at each location and at each hour of the day. Seasonality and the impact of weather conditions are modelled as semiparametric and estimated using recently developed multivariate penalized spline methodology. Unlike previous studies that use aggregate data, the empirical results show a substantial meteorological and seasonal component to usage. They also suggest there was substitution into cycling as a mode of transport in response to increases in petrol prices, particularly during peak commuting periods and by commuters originating in wealthy and inner city neighbourhoods. Last, we extend the approach to a multivariate longitudinal count data model using a Gaussian copula estimated by Bayesian data augmentation. We find first order serial dependence in the hourly volumes and a ‘return trip’ effect in daily bicycle commutes.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 45 (2011)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167, August.
- Nankervis, Max, 1999. "The effect of weather and climate on bicycle commuting," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 417-431, August.
- Bhat, Chandra R. & Eluru, Naveen, 2009. "A copula-based approach to accommodate residential self-selection effects in travel behavior modeling," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 749-765, August.
- Rietveld, Piet & Daniel, Vanessa, 2004. "Determinants of bicycle use: do municipal policies matter?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 531-550, August.
- Simon N. Wood, 2003. "Thin plate regression splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 95-114.
- Ferdous, Nazneen & Eluru, Naveen & Bhat, Chandra R. & Meloni, Italo, 2010. "A multivariate ordered-response model system for adults' weekday activity episode generation by activity purpose and social context," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(8-9), pages 922-943, September.
- Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Smith, Michael, 2008. "Bayesian identification, selection and estimation of semiparametric functions in high-dimensional additive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 291-316, April.
- Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
- J. Hunt & J. Abraham, 2007. "Influences on bicycle use," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 453-470, July.
- Cottet R. & Smith M., 2003. "Bayesian Modeling and Forecasting of Intraday Electricity Load," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 839-849, January.
- Peter Xue-Kun Song, 2000. "Multivariate Dispersion Models Generated From Gaussian Copula," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 305-320.
- Xing, Yan & Handy, Susan L. & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2010. "Factors Associated with Proportions and Miles of Bicycling for Transportation and Recreation in Six Small U.S. Cities," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt74n4j1p0, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
- Wardman, Mark & Tight, Miles & Page, Matthew, 2007. "Factors influencing the propensity to cycle to work," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 339-350, May.
- Michael Pitt & David Chan & Robert Kohn, 2006. "Efficient Bayesian inference for Gaussian copula regression models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 93(3), pages 537-554, September.
- Håvard Rue & Sara Martino & Nicolas Chopin, 2009. "Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 319-392.
- Göran Kauermann & Jean D. Opsomer, 2011. "Data-driven selection of the spline dimension in penalized spline regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 225-230.
- Florin Vaida & Suzette Blanchard, 2005. "Conditional Akaike information for mixed-effects models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(2), pages 351-370, June.
- Herriges, Joseph A. & Phaneuf, Daniel J. & Tobias, Justin L., 2008.
"Estimating demand systems when outcomes are correlated counts,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 282-298, December.
- Herriges, Joseph A. & Phaneuf, Daniel J. & Tobias, Justin, 2008. "Estimating Demand Systems when Outcomes Are Correlated Count," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12934, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Göran Kauermann & Tatyana Krivobokova & Ludwig Fahrmeir, 2009. "Some asymptotic results on generalized penalized spline smoothing," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 487-503.
- Peter J. Danaher & Michael S. Smith, 2011. "Modeling Multivariate Distributions Using Copulas: Applications in Marketing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 4-21, 01-02.
- Fiebig, Denzil G. & Bartels, Robert & Aigner, Dennis J., 1991. "A random coefficient approach to the estimation of residential end-use load profiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 297-327, December.
- Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506, August.
- Wong, Chi-ming & Kohn, Robert, 1996. "A Bayesian approach to additive semiparametric regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, October.
- Christian Lavergne & Marie-José Martinez & Catherine Trottier, 2008. "Empirical model selection in generalized linear mixed effects models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 99-109, January.
- Shannon, Tya & Giles-Corti, Billie & Pikora, Terri & Bulsara, Max & Shilton, Trevor & Bull, Fiona, 2006. "Active commuting in a university setting: Assessing commuting habits and potential for modal change," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 240-253, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:45:y:2011:i:10:p:1846-1862. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.