Estimating demand systems when outcomes are correlated counts
We describe and employ a Bayesian posterior simulator for fitting a high-dimensional system of ordinal or count outcome equations. The model is then applied to describe the multiple site recreation demands of individual agents, and we argue that our approach provides advantages relative to existing methods commonly applied in this area. In particular, our model flexibly adjusts to match observed frequencies in trip outcomes, permits a flexible correlation pattern among the sites visited by individuals, and the posterior simulator for fitting this model is relatively easy to implement in practice. We also describe how the posterior simulations produced from the model can be used to conduct a variety of counterfactual experiments, including predicting behavioral changes and describing welfare implications resulting from shifts in exogenous demographic and site characteristics. We illustrate our method using data from the Iowa Lakes Project by modeling the visitation patterns of individuals to a set of twenty-nine large Iowa lakes. Consistent with previous findings in the literature, we see strong evidence that own and cross-price effects on trip demand are negative and positive, respectively, that higher income increases the likelihood of visiting most sites, and that a commonly used indicator of water quality, Secchi transparency, is positively correlated with the number of trips taken. In addition, the correlation structure among the errors reveals a complex pattern in which unobserved factors affecting trip demand are generally (though not strictly) positively correlated across sites. The flexibility and richness with which we are able to characterize the demand system provides a solid platform for counterfactual analysis, where we find significant behavioral and welfare effects from changes in site availability, water quality, and travel costs.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg & Rainer Winkelmann, 1996.
"Posterior Simulation and Bayes Factors in Panel Count Data Models,"
9608003, EconWPA, revised 25 Nov 1996.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward & Winkelmann, Rainer, 1998. "Posterior simulation and Bayes factors in panel count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-54, June.
- Hausman, Jerry A, 1981. "Exact Consumer's Surplus and Deadweight Loss," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 662-76, September.
- Kenneth Train, 2003.
"Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation,"
Online economics textbooks,
SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2, March.
- Jeffrey Englin & Peter Boxall & David Watson, 1998. "Modeling Recreation Demand in a Poisson System of Equations: An Analysis of the Impact of International Exchange Rates," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(2), pages 255-263.
- John Mullahy, 1997. "Instrumental-Variable Estimation Of Count Data Models: Applications To Models Of Cigarette Smoking Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 586-593, November.
- Egan, Kevin & Herriges, Joseph, 2006.
"Multivariate count data regression models with individual panel data from an on-site sample,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 567-581, September.
- Egan, Kevin J. & Herriges, Joseph A., 2006. "Multivariate Count Data Regression Models with Individual Panel Data from an On-Site Sample," Staff General Research Papers 12573, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Joseph A. Herriges & Daniel J. Phaneuf, 2002. "Inducing Patterns of Correlation and Substitution in Repeated Logit Models of Recreation Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1076-1090.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Winkelmann, Rainer, 2001. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Analysis of Correlated Count Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 428-35, October.
- Patrick Bayer & Christopher Timmins, 2007.
"Estimating Equilibrium Models Of Sorting Across Locations,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 353-374, 03.
- Patrick J. Bayer & Christopher D. Timmins, 2004. "Estimating Equilibrium Models of Sorting Across Locations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm415, Yale School of Management.
- Patrick Bayer & Christopher Timmins, 2003. "Estimating Equilibrium Models of Sorting across Locations," Working Papers 862, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
- Dionne, Georges & Gagne, Robert & Gagnon, Francois & Vanasse, Charles, 1997.
"Debt, moral hazard and airline safety An empirical evidence,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 379-402, August.
- Dionne, G. & Gagne, R. & Gagnon, F. & Vanasse, C., 1994. "Debts, moral hazard and airline safety : an empirica evidence," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9419, CEPREMAP.
- Dionne, G. & Gagne, R. & Gagnon, F. & Vanasse, C., 1993. "Debt, Moral Hazard and Airline Safety : An Empirical Evidence," Cahiers de recherche 9309, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Englin, Jeffrey & Shonkwiler, J S, 1995. "Estimating Social Welfare Using Count Data Models: An Application to Long-Run Recreation Demand under Conditions of Endogenous Stratification and Truncation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 104-12, February.
- Wang, Peiming & Cockburn, Iain M & Puterman, Martin L, 1998. "Analysis of Patent Data--A Mixed-Poisson-Regression-Model Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 27-41, January.
- Jeffrey T. LaFrance & W. Michael Hanemann, 1989. "The Dual Structure of Incomplete Demand Systems," Monash Economics Working Papers archive-21, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Ruser, John W, 1991. "Workers' Compensation and Occupational Injuries and Illnesses," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(4), pages 325-50, October.
- Koop, Gary M & Poirier, Dale J & Tobias, Justin, 2007.
"Bayesian Econometric Methods,"
Staff General Research Papers
12722, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Herriges, Joseph A. & Phaneuf, Daniel J., 2002. "Inducing Patterns Correlation and Substitution in Repeated Logit Model of Recreation Demand," Staff General Research Papers 5035, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Sha Yang & Yuxin Chen & Greg Allenby, 2003. "Bayesian Analysis of Simultaneous Demand and Supply," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 251-275, September.
- Winkelmann, Rainer, 2000. " Seemingly Unrelated Negative Binomial Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 553-60, September.
- Ozuna, Teofilo, Jr & Gomez, Irma Adriana, 1994. "Estimating a System of Recreation Demand Functions Using a Seemingly Unrelated Poisson Regression Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 356-60, May.
- Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July.
- von Haefen, Roger H. & Phaneuf, Daniel J., 2003. "Estimating preferences for outdoor recreation:: a comparison of continuous and count data demand system frameworks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 612-630, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:147:y:2008:i:2:p:282-298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.