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Demand and Welfare Effects in Recreational Travel Models: A Bivariate Count Data Approach

Author

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  • Hellström, Jörgen

    () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

  • Nordström, Jonas

    () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

Abstract

In this paper we present a non-linear demand system for households' joint choice of number of trips and days to spend at a destination. The approach, which facilitates welfare analysis of exogenous policy and price changes, is used empirically to study the effects of an increased CO2 tax. In the empirical study, a bivariate zero-inflated Poisson lognormal regression model is introduced in order to accommodate the large number of zeroes in the sample. The welfare analysis reveals that the equivalent variation (EV) measure, for the count data demand system, can be seen as an upper bound for the households welfare loss. Approximating the welfare loss by the change in consumer surplus, accounting for the positive effect from longer stays, imposes a lower bound on the households welfare loss. From a distributional point of view, the results reveal that the CO2 tax reform is regressive, in the sense that low income households carry a larger part of the tax burden.

Suggested Citation

  • Hellström, Jörgen & Nordström, Jonas, 2005. "Demand and Welfare Effects in Recreational Travel Models: A Bivariate Count Data Approach," Umeå Economic Studies 648, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0648
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Morey, Edward R. & Shaw, W. Douglass & Rowe, Robert D., 1991. "A discrete-choice model of recreational participation, site choice, and activity valuation when complete trip data are not available," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 181-201, March.
    4. Englin, Jeffrey & Shonkwiler, J S, 1995. "Estimating Social Welfare Using Count Data Models: An Application to Long-Run Recreation Demand under Conditions of Endogenous Stratification and Truncation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 104-112, February.
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    11. Berman, Matthew D. & Kim, Hong Jin, 1999. "Endogenous On-Site Time In The Recreation Demand Model," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21616, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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    Cited by:

    1. Jörgen Hellström & Jonas Nordström, 2008. "A count data model with endogenous household specific censoring: the number of nights to stay," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 179-192, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demand analysis; welfare effects; count data; bivariate zero inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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