IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/hlthec/v20y2011i8p897-916.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Review of statistical methods for analysing healthcare resources and costs

Author

Listed:
  • Borislava Mihaylova
  • Andrew Briggs
  • Anthony O'Hagan
  • Simon G. Thompson

Abstract

We review statistical methods for analysing healthcare resource use and costs, their ability to address skewness, excess zeros, multimodality and heavy right tails, and their ease for general use. We aim to provide guidance on analysing resource use and costs focusing on randomised trials, although methods often have wider applicability. Twelve broad categories of methods were identified: (I) methods based on the normal distribution, (II) methods following transformation of data, (III) single‐distribution generalized linear models (GLMs), (IV) parametric models based on skewed distributions outside the GLM family, (V) models based on mixtures of parametric distributions, (VI) two (or multi)‐part and Tobit models, (VII) survival methods, (VIII) non‐parametric methods, (IX) methods based on truncation or trimming of data, (X) data components models, (XI) methods based on averaging across models, and (XII) Markov chain methods. Based on this review, our recommendations are that, first, simple methods are preferred in large samples where the near‐normality of sample means is assured. Second, in somewhat smaller samples, relatively simple methods, able to deal with one or two of above data characteristics, may be preferable but checking sensitivity to assumptions is necessary. Finally, some more complex methods hold promise, but are relatively untried; their implementation requires substantial expertise and they are not currently recommended for wider applied work. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Borislava Mihaylova & Andrew Briggs & Anthony O'Hagan & Simon G. Thompson, 2011. "Review of statistical methods for analysing healthcare resources and costs," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 897-916, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:20:y:2011:i:8:p:897-916
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1653
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.1653
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hec.1653?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilleskie, Donna B. & Mroz, Thomas A., 2004. "A flexible approach for estimating the effects of covariates on health expenditures," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 391-418, March.
    2. Chib, Siddhartha, 2001. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods: computation and inference," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 57, pages 3569-3649, Elsevier.
    3. Manning, W. G. & Duan, N. & Rogers, W. H., 1987. "Monte Carlo evidence on the choice between sample selection and two-part models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 59-82, May.
    4. Mullahy, John, 1998. "Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-281, June.
    5. Nicola J. Cooper & Paul C. Lambert & Keith R. Abrams & Alexander J. Sutton, 2007. "Predicting costs over time using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods: an application to early inflammatory polyarthritis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 37-56, January.
    6. John Mullahy, 1998. "Much Ado About Two: Reconsidering Retransformation and the Two-Part Model in Health Economics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Rainer Winkelmann, 2004. "Health care reform and the number of doctor visits-an econometric analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 455-472.
    8. Chunrong Ai & Edward C. Norton, 2008. "A semiparametric derivative estimator in log transformation models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(3), pages 538-553, November.
    9. Murat K. Munkin & Pravin K. Trivedi, 1999. "Simulated maximum likelihood estimation of multivariate mixed-Poisson regression models, with application," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 29-48.
    10. Manning, Willard G. & Basu, Anirban & Mullahy, John, 2005. "Generalized modeling approaches to risk adjustment of skewed outcomes data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 465-488, May.
    11. Gurmu, Shiferaw, 1998. "Generalized hurdle count data regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 263-268, March.
    12. Paul V. Grootendorst, 1995. "A comparison of alternative models of prescription drug utilization," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 183-198, May.
    13. Deb, Partha & Trivedi, Pravin K., 2002. "The structure of demand for health care: latent class versus two-part models," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 601-625, July.
    14. Leung, Siu Fai & Yu, Shihti, 1996. "On the choice between sample selection and two-part models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 197-229.
    15. A. Colin Cameron & Tong Li & Pravin K. Trivedi & David M. Zimmer, 2004. "Modelling the differences in counted outcomes using bivariate copula models with application to mismeasured counts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 566-584, December.
    16. Mullahy, John, 1997. "Heterogeneity, Excess Zeros, and the Structure of Count Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 337-350, May-June.
    17. Gurmu, Shiferaw, 1997. "Semi-Parametric Estimation of Hurdle Regression Models with an Application to Medicaid Utilization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 225-243, May-June.
    18. Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
    19. Duan, Naihua, et al, 1984. "Choosing between the Sample-Selection Model and the Multi-part Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 283-289, July.
    20. Chib, Siddhartha & Winkelmann, Rainer, 2001. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Analysis of Correlated Count Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 428-435, October.
    21. Partha Deb & James F. Burgess, Jr., 2003. "A Quasi-experimental Comparison of Econometric Models for Health Care Expenditures," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 212, Hunter College Department of Economics.
    22. Anirban Basu & Willard G. Manning & John Mullahy, 2004. "Comparing alternative models: log vs Cox proportional hazard?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 749-765, August.
    23. Caterina Conigliani & Andrea Tancredi, 2006. "Comparing parametric and semi-parametric approaches for bayesian cost-effectiveness analyses in health economics," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0064, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    24. Anirban Basu, 2005. "Extended generalized linear models: Simultaneous estimation of flexible link and variance functions," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(4), pages 501-516, December.
    25. Rainer Winkelmann, 2008. "Econometric Analysis of Count Data," Springer Books, Springer, edition 0, number 978-3-540-78389-3, June.
    26. Caterina Conigliani & Andrea Tancredi, 2005. "A bayesian semi-parametric approach for cost-effectiveness analysis in health economics," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0046, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    27. Marazzi, A. & Ruffieux, C., 1999. "The truncated mean of an asymmetric distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 79-100, November.
    28. Deb, Partha & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1997. "Demand for Medical Care by the Elderly: A Finite Mixture Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 313-336, May-June.
    29. Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes & Zaslavsky, Alan M., 2004. "Too much ado about two-part models and transformation?: Comparing methods of modeling Medicare expenditures," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 525-542, May.
    30. Andrew Briggs & Richard Nixon & Simon Dixon & Simon Thompson, 2005. "Parametric modelling of cost data: some simulation evidence," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 421-428, April.
    31. Caterina Conigliani & Andrea Tancredi, 2003. "Semi-parametric modelling for costs of helt care technologies," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0034, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    32. Manning, Willard G., 1998. "The logged dependent variable, heteroscedasticity, and the retransformation problem," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-295, June.
    33. Simon G. Thompson & Richard M. Nixon, 2005. "How Sensitive Are Cost-Effectiveness Analyses to Choice of Parametric Distributions?," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 25(4), pages 416-423, July.
    34. Hay, Joel W & Olsen, Randall J, 1984. "Let Them Eat Cake: A Note on Comparing Alternative Models of the Demand for Medical Care," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 279-282, July.
    35. Steven C. Hill & G. Edward Miller, 2010. "Health expenditure estimation and functional form: applications of the generalized gamma and extended estimating equations models," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 608-627, May.
    36. Cantoni, Eva & Ronchetti, Elvezio, 2006. "A robust approach for skewed and heavy-tailed outcomes in the analysis of health care expenditures," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 198-213, March.
    37. Cantoni E. & Ronchetti E., 2001. "Robust Inference for Generalized Linear Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1022-1030, September.
    38. Gurmu, Shiferaw & Elder, John, 2000. "Generalized bivariate count data regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 31-36, July.
    39. Anirban Basu & Bhakti V. Arondekar & Paul J. Rathouz, 2006. "Scale of interest versus scale of estimation: comparing alternative estimators for the incremental costs of a comorbidity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(10), pages 1091-1107, October.
    40. Kenneth J. Arrow & Robert C. Lind, 1974. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 3, pages 54-75, Palgrave Macmillan.
    41. Anthony O'Hagan & John W. Stevens, 2003. "Assessing and comparing costs: how robust are the bootstrap and methods based on asymptotic normality?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 33-49, January.
    42. Duan, Naihua, et al, 1983. "A Comparison of Alternative Models for the Demand for Medical Care," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 115-126, April.
    43. Blough, David K. & Madden, Carolyn W. & Hornbrook, Mark C., 1999. "Modeling risk using generalized linear models," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 153-171, April.
    44. Zudi Lu & Yer Van Hui & Andy H. Lee, 2003. "Minimum Hellinger Distance Estimation for Finite Mixtures of Poisson Regression Models and Its Applications," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1016-1026, December.
    45. Caterina Conigliani & Andrea Tancredi, 2009. "A Bayesian model averaging approach for cost‐effectiveness analyses," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(7), pages 807-821, July.
    46. Francesca Dominici & Leslie Cope & Daniel Q. Naiman & Scott L. Zeger, 2005. "Smooth quantile ratio estimation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(3), pages 543-557, September.
    47. Partha Deb & Ann M. Holmes, 2000. "Estimates of use and costs of behavioural health care: a comparison of standard and finite mixture models," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(6), pages 475-489, September.
    48. Wang, Peiming, 2003. "A bivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression model for count data with excess zeros," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 373-378, March.
    49. Joseph Lipscomb & Marek Ancukiewicz & Giovanni Parmigiani & Vic Hasselblad & Greg Samsa & David B. Matchar, 1998. "Predicting the Cost of Illness," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 18(2_suppl), pages 39-56, April.
    50. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2000. "Standard errors for the retransformation problem with heteroscedasticity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 697-718, September.
    51. A. Colin Cameron & Tong Li & Pravin K. Trivedi & David M. Zimmer, 2004. "Modelling the differences in counted outcomes using bivariate copula models with application to mismeasured counts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 566-584, December.
    52. Huixia Judy Wang & Xiao-Hua Zhou, 2010. "Estimation of the retransformed conditional mean in health care cost studies," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 97(1), pages 147-158.
    53. Nicola J. Cooper & Alex J. Sutton & Miranda Mugford & Keith R. Abrams, 2003. "Use of Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods to Model Cost-of-Illness Data," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 23(1), pages 38-53, January.
    54. Paul C. Lambert & Lucinda J. Billingham & Nicola J. Cooper & Alex J. Sutton & Keith R. Abrams, 2008. "Estimating the cost‐effectiveness of an intervention in a clinical trial when partial cost information is available: a Bayesian approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 67-81, January.
    55. Manning, Willard G. & Mullahy, John, 2001. "Estimating log models: to transform or not to transform?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 461-494, July.
    56. Cameron, A Colin & Johansson, Per, 1997. "Count Data Regression Using Series Expansions: With Applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 203-223, May-June.
    57. Marazzi, A., 2002. "Bootstrap tests for robust means of asymmetric distributions with unequal shapes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 503-528, June.
    58. Keeler, Emmett B. & Manning, Willard G. & Wells, Kenneth B., 1988. "The demand for episodes of mental health services," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 369-392, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jones, A.M, 2010. "Models For Health Care," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/01, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Andrew M. Jones & James Lomas & Peter T. Moore & Nigel Rice, 2016. "A quasi-Monte-Carlo comparison of parametric and semiparametric regression methods for heavy-tailed and non-normal data: an application to healthcare costs," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(4), pages 951-974, October.
    3. Jones, A. & Lomas, J. & Rice, N., 2014. "Going Beyond the Mean in Healthcare Cost Regressions: a Comparison of Methods for Estimating the Full Conditional Distribution," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 14/26, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Andrew M. Jones & James Lomas & Nigel Rice, 2015. "Healthcare Cost Regressions: Going Beyond the Mean to Estimate the Full Distribution," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(9), pages 1192-1212, September.
    5. Besstremyannaya, Galina, 2017. "Measuring income equity in the demand for healthcare with finite mixture models," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 46, pages 5-29.
    6. Galina Besstremyannaya, 2012. "Estimating income equity in social health insurance system," Working Papers w0172, New Economic School (NES).
    7. Cantoni, Eva & Ronchetti, Elvezio, 2006. "A robust approach for skewed and heavy-tailed outcomes in the analysis of health care expenditures," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 198-213, March.
    8. Manos Matsaganis & Theodore Mitrakos & Panos Tsakloglou, 2008. "Modelling Household Expenditure on Health Care in Greece," Working Papers 68, Bank of Greece.
    9. Liu, Lei & Strawderman, Robert L. & Cowen, Mark E. & Shih, Ya-Chen T., 2010. "A flexible two-part random effects model for correlated medical costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 110-123, January.
    10. Toni Mora & Joan Gil & Antoni Sicras-Mainar, 2015. "The influence of obesity and overweight on medical costs: a panel data perspective," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(2), pages 161-173, March.
    11. Steven C. Hill & G. Edward Miller, 2010. "Health expenditure estimation and functional form: applications of the generalized gamma and extended estimating equations models," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 608-627, May.
    12. Keane, Michael & Stavrunova, Olena, 2016. "Adverse selection, moral hazard and the demand for Medigap insurance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 62-78.
    13. Marcel Bilger & Willard G. Manning, 2015. "Measuring Overfitting In Nonlinear Models: A New Method And An Application To Health Expenditures," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 75-85, January.
    14. Toni Mora & Joan Gil & Antoni Sicras-Mainar, 2012. "The Influence of BMI, Obesity and Overweight on Medical Costs: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2012-08, FEDEA.
    15. Brigitte Dormont & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Ageing and changes in medical practices : reassessing theinfluence of demography," Post-Print halshs-00274723, HAL.
    16. Valerie Albouy & Laurent Davezies & Thierry Debrand, 2009. "Dynamic Estimation of Health Expenditure: A new approach for simulating individual expenditure," Working Papers DT20, IRDES institut for research and information in health economics, revised Jan 2009.
    17. Toni Mora & Joan Gil & Antoni Sicras-Mainar, 2012. "The Influence of BMI, Obesity and Overweight on Medical Costs: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2012-08, FEDEA.
    18. Galina Besstremyannaya, 2012. "Estimating income equity in social health insurance system," Working Papers w0172, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    19. Galina Besstremyannaya, 2014. "Heterogeneous effect of coinsurance rate on healthcare costs: generalized finite mixtures and matching estimators," Discussion Papers 14-014, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    20. Andrew M. Jones & James Lomas & Nigel Rice, 2014. "Applying Beta‐Type Size Distributions To Healthcare Cost Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 649-670, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:20:y:2011:i:8:p:897-916. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.