A Quasi-experimental Comparison of Econometric Models for Health Care Expenditures
Individual health care expenditures have complex non-normal distributions with severe positive skewness and leptokurtosis. These features present severe challenges to reliable modeling of expenditures for prediction purposes. We compare a variety of methods using quasi-experimental techniques. Our quasi-experiments combine the distributional realism of actual data on health care expenditures with the reliability of Monte Carlo experimental results. We find that models based on Gamma densities predict substantially better than models based on linear regression with and without transformation of the dependent variable. Models based on finite mixtures of Gamma densities show further improvement in predictive properties.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 695 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10065|
Web page: http://econ.hunter.cuny.edu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1982.
"On the behavior of inconsistent instrumental variable estimators,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 183-201, August.
- Esfandier Maasoumi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1980. "On the Behavior of Inconsistent Instrumental Variable Estimators," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 568, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hendry, David F., 1982. "A reply to Professors Maasoumi and Phillips," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 203-213, August.
- Blough, David K. & Madden, Carolyn W. & Hornbrook, Mark C., 1999. "Modeling risk using generalized linear models," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 153-171, April.
- Manning, Willard G. & Mullahy, John, 2001.
"Estimating log models: to transform or not to transform?,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 461-494, July.
- Willard G. Manning & John Mullahy, 1999. "Estimating Log Models: To Transform or Not to Transform?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McDonald, James B & Mantrala, Anand, 1995. "The Distribution of Personal Income: Revisited," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 201-04, April-Jun.
- James J. Heckman, 2001. "Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel Lecture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(4), pages 673-748, August.
- Deb, Partha & Trivedi, Pravin K., 2002. "The structure of demand for health care: latent class versus two-part models," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 601-625, July.
- Jones, Andrew M., 2000.
Handbook of Health Economics,
in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 265-344
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jonathan Conning)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.