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On the Behavior of Inconsistent Instrumental Variable Estimators

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Abstract

Results published recently by Hendry (1979) for the limiting distribution of inconsistent instrumental variable estimators in misspecified dynamic systems are incorrect. In particular, Hendry's derivations involve the use of an appropriate control variate and lead to an expression for the covariance matrix of the limiting distribution which, in general, omits many additional terms. Correct formulae are given in the present paper and the accuracy of the asymptotic distribution in finite samples is investigated in a simple case using the know exact small sample distribution. On the basis of our exact results, we argue for caution in the use of response surface regressions of the type recommended by Hendry in Monte Carlo experiments; and we emphasize the need for qualifying statements concerning the parameter environments in which the adequacy of these regressions has been substantiated.

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  • Esfandier Maasoumi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1980. "On the Behavior of Inconsistent Instrumental Variable Estimators," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 568, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:568 Note: CFP 554.
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    1. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    2. Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1979. "Testing the Theory of Social Security and Life Cycle Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 396-410, June.
    3. Diamond, P. A., 1977. "A framework for social security analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 275-298, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marmer, Vadim & Otsu, Taisuke, 2012. "Optimal comparison of misspecified moment restriction models under a chosen measure of fit," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 538-550.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 1986. "Post-simulation Analysis of Monte Carlo Experiments: Interpreting Pesaran's (1974) Study of Non-nested Hypothesis Test Statistics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 691-707.
    3. Hendry, David F., 1984. "Monte carlo experimentation in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 937-976 Elsevier.
    4. Partha Deb & James F. Burgess, Jr., 2003. "A Quasi-experimental Comparison of Econometric Models for Health Care Expenditures," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 212, Hunter College Department of Economics.
    5. Lee, Seojeong, 2014. "Asymptotic refinements of a misspecification-robust bootstrap for generalized method of moments estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 398-413.
    6. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim & Tang, Yao, 2012. "Comparison of misspecified calibrated models: The minimum distance approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 131-138.
    7. Susanne M. Schennach, 2007. "Point estimation with exponentially tilted empirical likelihood," Papers 0708.1874, arXiv.org.
    8. repec:eme:aecozz:s0731-905320140000033013 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2003. "The large sample behaviour of the generalized method of moments estimator in misspecified models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 361-394, June.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson, 1987. "Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2015. "Asymptotic variance approximations for invariant estimators in uncertain asset-pricing models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2008. "Examining bias in estimators of linear rational expectations models under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 375-395, April.
    13. Kiviet, Jan F. & Niemczyk, Jerzy, 2007. "The asymptotic and finite sample distributions of OLS and simple IV in simultaneous equations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3296-3318, April.
    14. Jan F. Kiviet & Jerzy Niemczyk, 2014. "On the Limiting and Empirical Distributions of IV Estimators When Some of the Instruments are Actually Endogenous," Advances in Econometrics,in: Essays in Honor of Peter C. B. Phillips, volume 33, pages 425-490 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    15. Mardi Dungey & Vitali Alexeev & Jing Tian & Alastair R. Hall, 2015. "Econometricians Have Their Moments: GMM at 32," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91, pages 1-24, June.

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