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A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany

  • Charles Bellemare

This paper estimates a structural dynamic model of outmigration which incorporate several features of existing outmigration theories but distinguishes itself by introducing uncertainty about future earnings and preferences which allows immigrants to revise their duration decisions throughout their migration experience. Estimation results indicate that outmigration does not depend exclusively on earnings differentials. Immigrants are found to be forward looking decision makers, and simulations show that predicted migration durations can be very sensitive to changes in the economic environment, and differ considerably from those of a myopic model.

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Paper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0430.

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Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0430
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  1. Dubin, Jeffrey A & McFadden, Daniel L, 1984. "An Econometric Analysis of Residential Electric Appliance Holdings and Consumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 345-62, March.
  2. Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1995. "Tackling the European Migration Problems," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 45-62, Spring.
  3. Robert J. LaLonde & Robert H. Topel, 1992. "The Assimilation of Immigrants in the U. S. Labor Market," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration and the Workforce: Economic Consequences for the United States and Source Areas, pages 67-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Darren Lubotsky, 2007. "Chutes or Ladders? A Longitudinal Analysis of Immigrant Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(5), pages 820-867, October.
  5. Bauer, Thomas & Kunze, Astrid, 2004. "The Demand for High-Skilled Workers and Immigration Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4274, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Edin, P.-A. & Lalonde, R.J. & Aslund, O., 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Papers 2000-13, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  7. Stark, Oded, 2014. "On the economics of others," Discussion Papers 164965, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  8. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
  9. Dustmann, Christian, 1994. "Return Intentions of Migrants: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. William A. V. Clark & Anita I. Drever, 2001. "Do Immigrants Improve Their Housing Quality When They Move?: Evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(1), pages 87-94.
  11. Jasso, Guillermina & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1990. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 298-304, March.
  12. Dustmann, Christian, 2000. "Temporary Migration and Economic Assimilation," IZA Discussion Papers 186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Johannes Velling, 1997. "Employment Effects Of Immigration To Germany: An Analysis Based On Local Labor Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 594-604, November.
  14. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2001. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," IZA Discussion Papers 266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Sarit Cohen-Goldner & Zvi Eckstein, 2008. "Labor Mobility Of Immigrants: Training, Experience, Language, And Opportunities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 837-872, 08.
  16. Carrington, William J & Detragiache, Enrica & Vishwanath, Tara, 1996. "Migration with Endogenous Moving Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 909-30, September.
  17. Wei-Yin Hu, 2000. "Immigrant Earnings Assimilation: Estimates from Longitudinal Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 368-372, May.
  18. Lewbel, Arthur, 2000. "Identification Of The Binary Choice Model With Misclassification," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 603-609, August.
  19. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-42, March.
  20. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1995. "Unemployment Benefits and Labor Market Transitions: A Multinomial Logit Model with Errors in Classification," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 207-16, May.
  21. Bellemare, C., 2004. "Identification and Estimation of Economic Models of Outmigration using Panel Attrition," Discussion Paper 2004-28, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  22. Guillermina Jasso & Mark Rosensweig & James P. Smith, 2003. "The Earnings of US immigrants," Labor and Demography 0312007, EconWPA.
  23. Van Der Klaauw, W., 1993. "Female Labor Supply and Marital Status Decisions: A Life Cycle Model," Working Papers 93-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  24. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2000. "Immigration Policy in Integrated National Economies," IZA Discussion Papers 170, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  25. Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March.
  26. Charles Bellemare, 2004. "Identification and Estimation of the Economic Performance of Outmigrants using Panel Attrition," Cahiers de recherche 0429, CIRPEE.
  27. T. Paul Schultz, 1998. "Immigrant quality and assimilation: A review of the US literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 239-252.
  28. Bound, John & Brown, Charles & Mathiowetz, Nancy, 2001. "Measurement error in survey data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 59, pages 3705-3843 Elsevier.
  29. Markus Pannenberg, 1998. "Documentation of Sample Sizes and Panel Attrition in the German Socio Economic Panel (GSOEP) 1984 until 1997," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 172, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  30. Bellemare, Charles, 2004. "Identification and Estimation of Economic Models of Outmigration Using Panel Attrition," IZA Discussion Papers 1065, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  31. Christian Dustmann, 1996. "An Economic Analysis of Return Migration," Discussion Papers 96-02 ISSN 1350-6722, University College London, Department of Economics.
  32. Pessino, Carola, 1991. "Sequential migration theory and evidence from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 55-87, July.
  33. Dustmann, C. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1998. "Language Fluency and Earnings : Estimation with Misclassified Language Indicators," Discussion Paper 1998-120, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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