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A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany

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  • Charles Bellemare

Abstract

This paper estimates a structural dynamic model of outmigration which incorporate several features of existing outmigration theories but distinguishes itself by introducing uncertainty about future earnings and preferences which allows immigrants to revise their duration decisions throughout their migration experience. Estimation results indicate that outmigration does not depend exclusively on earnings differentials. Immigrants are found to be forward looking decision makers, and simulations show that predicted migration durations can be very sensitive to changes in the economic environment, and differ considerably from those of a myopic model.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Bellemare, 2004. "A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany," Cahiers de recherche 0430, CIRPEE.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0430
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants' Earnings Profiles," CESifo Working Paper Series 4617, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Rémi Bazillier & Francesco Magris & Daniel Mirza, 2017. "Out-migration and economic cycles," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 39-69, February.
    3. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    4. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2015. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," CESifo Working Paper Series 5188, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Ciro Avitabile & Irma Clots-Figueras & Paolo Masella, 2013. "The Effect of Birthright Citizenship on Parental Integration Outcomes," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 777-810.
    6. Alpaslan Akay & Olivier Bargain & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2017. "Home Sweet Home?: Macroeconomic Conditions in Home Countries and the Well-Being of Migrants," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 52(2), pages 351-373.
    7. Zakharenko, Roman, 2008. "Return Migration: an Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 13755, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.
    8. Kuhlenkasper, Torben & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2017. "Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 610-621.
    9. Martin Kahanec & Michael Shields, 2013. "The working hours of immigrants in Germany: temporary versus permanent," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants’ Earnings Profiles," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2014002, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    11. Tommaso Frattini, 2017. "Integration of immigrants in host countries - what we know and what works," Development Working Papers 427, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    12. Elena Samarsky, 2020. "Who is Thinking of Leaving Germany? The Role of Postmaterialism, Risk Attitudes, and Life-Satisfaction on Emigration Intentions of German Nationals," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1066, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    13. repec:leo:wpaper:2314 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jain, Apoorva & Peter, Klara Sabirianova, 2017. "Limits to Wage Growth: Understanding the Wage Divergence between Immigrants and Natives," IZA Discussion Papers 10891, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Majlinda Joxhe, 2012. "Selection in Return Migration: the Role of the Ethnic Networks," ERSA conference papers ersa12p463, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Outmigration; Structural dynamic programming models;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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