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Heterogeneity in stock prices: A STAR model with multivariate transition function

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  • Lof, Matthijs

Abstract

This paper applies a heterogeneous agent asset pricing model, featuring fundamentalists and chartists, to the price-dividend and price-earnings ratios of the S&P500 index. Agents update their beliefs according to macroeconomic information, as an alternative to evolutionary dynamics. For estimation, a STAR model is introduced, with a transition function depending on multiple transition variables. A procedure based on linearity testing is proposed to select the appropriate linear combination of transition variables. The results show that during periods of favorable economic conditions the fraction of chartists increases, causing stock prices to decouple from fundamentals.

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  • Lof, Matthijs, 2012. "Heterogeneity in stock prices: A STAR model with multivariate transition function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1845-1854.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:12:p:1845-1854
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2012.06.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Leppin, Julian Sebastian, 2014. "The relation between overreaction in forecasts and uncertainty: A nonlinear approachvon," HWWI Research Papers 158, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    2. Matthijs Lof, 2015. "Rational Speculators, Contrarians, and Excess Volatility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(8), pages 1889-1901, August.
    3. repec:eee:dyncon:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:101-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Andreas Fritz & Michael Stein & Christoph Weber, 2015. "The Role of Heterogeneous Agents in Fuel Markets: Testing Tales of Speculators in Oil Markets," EWL Working Papers 1505, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Aug 2015.
    5. repec:ctc:serie1:def7 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2018. "Can the interaction between a single long-term attractor and heterogeneous trading explain exchange rate behaviour? A nonlinear econometric investigation," MPRA Paper 83894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Hendrik Kaufmannz & Robinson Kruse, 2013. "Bias-corrected estimation in potentially mildly explosive autoregressive models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Baur, Dirk G. & Glover, Kristoffer J., 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations in the gold market: Specification and estimation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 116-133.
    9. He, Xue-Zhong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2016. "Trading heterogeneity under information uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 64-80.
    10. Lof, Matthijs, 2013. "Essays on Expectations and the Econometrics of Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 59064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Julian S. Leppin & Stefan Reitz, 2016. "The Role of a Changing Market Environment for Credit Default Swap Pricing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 209-223, July.
    12. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2017. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations, And The Amplification And Duration Of Crises," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 542-564, January.
    13. Chen, Zhenxi & Reitz, Stefan, 2016. "Dynamics of the European sovereign bonds and the identification of crisis periods," FinMaP-Working Papers 57, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    14. Hommes, Cars & in ’t Veld, Daan, 2017. "Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 101-124.
    15. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan-Christoph, 2014. "Heterogeneous forecasters and nonlinear expectation formation in the US stock market," Kiel Working Papers 1947, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    16. Goldbaum, David & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2014. "An empirical examination of heterogeneity and switching in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 667-684.
    17. Zhentao Shi & Huanhuan Zheng, 2018. "Structural Estimation of Behavioral Heterogeneity," Papers 1802.03735, arXiv.org.
    18. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "Heteroeneous forecasters and nonlinear expectation formation in US stock market," FinMaP-Working Papers 29, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    19. repec:eee:dyncon:v:85:y:2017:i:c:p:21-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
    21. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-205/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Leppin, Julian Sebstian, 2014. "The Relation Between Overreaction in Forecasts and Uncertainty: A Nonlinear Approach," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100284, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    23. Ghadhab, Imen & Hellara, Slaheddine, 2015. "The law of one price, arbitrage opportunities and price convergence: Evidence from cross-listed stocks," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 126-145.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Heterogeneous beliefs; Smooth-transition autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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