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Labor Market Conditions At School-Leaving: Long-Run Effects On Marriage And Fertility

Author

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  • Johanna Catherine Maclean
  • Reginald Covington
  • Asia Sikora Kessler

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="coep12113-abs-0001"> In this study, we assess the long-run impact of labor market conditions at the time of school-leaving on marriage and fertility outcomes. We draw data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Our sample left school between 1976 and 1989, and we use variation in the state unemployment rate at the time of school-leaving to identify persistent effects. We find that men who left school when the state unemployment rate was high are less likely to be married and have children at age 45, but are more likely to be divorced. Women, however, are more likely to have children. (JEL J1, J2)

Suggested Citation

  • Johanna Catherine Maclean & Reginald Covington & Asia Sikora Kessler, 2016. "Labor Market Conditions At School-Leaving: Long-Run Effects On Marriage And Fertility," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 63-88, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:34:y:2016:i:1:p:63-88
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/coep.2016.34.issue-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Yue Yin & Ye Jiang, 2023. "Fertility Effects of Labor Market Conditions at Graduation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(4), pages 120-152, July.
    2. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-01521916 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hofmann, Barbara & Hohmeyer, Katrin, 2016. "The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-102.
    4. Schwandt, Hannes & von Wachter, Till, 2020. "Socioeconomic Decline and Death: Midlife Impacts of Graduating in a Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 14325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Ayako Kondo, 2016. "The effects of recessions on family formation," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 248-248, March.
    6. Jiang, Ye & Zhang, Tonglong, 2025. "When economic downturn hits bottom workers: Labor market entry conditions and long-term career effects," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Hannes Schwandt & Till M. von Wachter, 2020. "Socio-Economic Decline and Death: The Life-Cycle Impacts of Recessions for Labor Market Entrants," NBER Working Papers 26638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hovi Matti, 2020. "The Lasting Well-being Effects of Early Adulthood Macroeconomic Crises," Working Papers 1823, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
    9. Ayako KONDO, 2024. "Subtle Completed Fertility Recovery in Cohorts Who Entered the Labor Market during the Deep Recession in Japan," Discussion papers 24063, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Clementine Garrouste & Mathilde Godard, 2016. "The Lasting Health Impact of Leaving School in a Bad Economy: Britons in the 1970s Recession," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(S2), pages 70-92, November.
    11. John Cawley & Damien de Walque & Daniel Grossman, 2017. "The Effect of Stress on Later-Life Health: Evidence from the Vietnam Draft," NBER Working Papers 23334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Choi, Eleanor Jawon & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The long-term effects of labor market entry in a recession: Evidence from the Asian financial crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. James M. Raymo & Akihisa Shibata, 2017. "Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2301-2329, December.
    14. Ayako Kondo, 2015. "Differential effects of graduating during a recession across gender and race," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, December.
    15. Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2016. "Does Leaving School in an Economic Downturn Persistently Affect Body Weight? Evidence from Panel Data," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 122-148, January.
    16. Diana Alessandrini & Bharat Diwakar, 2023. "The Intergenerational Effects of Recessions," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(4), pages 1060-1087, December.
    17. Maclean, Johanna Catherine & Hill, Terrence D., 2015. "Leaving school in an economic downturn and self-esteem across early and middle adulthood," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-12.
    18. Clémentine Garrouste & Mathilde Godard, 2016. "The lasting health impact of leaving school in a bad economy : Britons in the 1970s recession," Post-Print hal-01408637, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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