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Socioeconomic Decline and Death: Midlife Impacts of Graduating in a Recession

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  • Hannes Schwandt
  • Till M. von Wachter

Abstract

This paper uses several large cross-sectional data sources and a new approach to estimate midlife effects of entering the labor market in a recession on mortality by cause and various measures of socioeconomic status. We find that cohorts coming of age during the deep recession of the early 1980s suffer increases in mortality that appear in their late 30s and further strengthen through age 50. We show these mortality impacts are driven by disease-related causes such as heart disease, lung cancer, and liver disease, as well as drug overdoses. At the same time, unlucky middle-aged labor market entrants earn less and work more while receiving less welfare support. They are also less likely to be married, more likely to be divorced, and experience higher rates of childlessness. Our findings demonstrate that tempo- rary disadvantages in the labor market during young adulthood can have substantial impacts on lifetime outcomes, can affect life and death in middle age, and go beyond the transitory initial career effects typically studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Hannes Schwandt & Till M. von Wachter, 2020. "Socioeconomic Decline and Death: Midlife Impacts of Graduating in a Recession," NBER Working Papers 26638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26638
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Arellano-Bover, Jaime, 2020. "The Effect of Labor Market Conditions at Entry on Workers' Long-Term Skills," IZA Discussion Papers 13129, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Choi, Eleanor Jawon & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The long-term effects of labor market entry in a recession: Evidence from the Asian financial crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Till von Wachter, 2020. "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 168-194, Fall.
    4. Till von Wachter, 2020. "Lost Generations: Long‐Term Effects of the COVID‐19 Crisis on Job Losers and Labour Market Entrants, and Options for Policy," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 549-590, September.
    5. Christian R. Proaño, 2020. "On the Macroeconomic and Social Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic in Latin America and the Developing World," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 159-162, May.
    6. Garrett Anstreicher, 2020. "Family Formation and the Great Recession," Working Papers 20-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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