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U.S. Employment and Opioids: Is There a Connection?

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  • Janet Currie
  • Jonas Y. Jin
  • Molly Schnell

Abstract

This paper uses quarterly county-level data from 2006–2014 to examine the direction of causality in the relationship between per capita opioid prescription rates and employment-to-population ratios. We first estimate models of the effect of per capita opioid prescription rates on employment-to-population ratios, instrumenting opioid prescriptions for younger ages using opioid prescriptions to the elderly. We find that the estimated effect of opioids on employment-to-population ratios is positive but small for women, while there is no relationship for men. We then estimate models of the effect of employment-to-population ratios on opioid prescription rates using a shift-share instrument, and find ambiguous results. Overall, our findings suggest that there is no simple causal relationship between economic conditions and the abuse of opioids. Therefore, while improving economic conditions in depressed areas is desirable for many reasons, it is unlikely on its own to curb the opioid epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Janet Currie & Jonas Y. Jin & Molly Schnell, 2018. "U.S. Employment and Opioids: Is There a Connection?," NBER Working Papers 24440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24440
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    Cited by:

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    2. Haan, Peter & Hammerschmid, Anna & Schmieder, Julia, 2019. "Mortality in midlife for subgroups in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14.
    3. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Mariel Schwartz, 2019. "The Transformation of Manufacturing and the Decline in US Employment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 307-372.
    4. Boslett, Andrew & Hill, Elaine, 2022. "Mortality during resource booms and busts," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Aliprantis, Dionissi & Fee, Kyle & Schweitzer, Mark E., 2023. "Opioids and the labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Shannon M. Monnat, 2019. "The Contributions of Socioeconomic and Opioid Supply Factors to Geographic Variation in U.S. Drug Mortality Rates," Working Papers Series 87, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    7. Ruhm, Christopher J., 2019. "Drivers of the fatal drug epidemic," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 25-42.
    8. Claudio Deiana & Ludovica Giua & Roberto Nisticò, 2019. "The Economics Behind the Epidemic: Afghan Opium Price and Prescription Opioids in the US," CSEF Working Papers 525, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 13 May 2019.
    9. Dionissi Aliprantis & Mark E. Schweitzer, 2018. "Opioids and the Labor Market," Working Papers (Old Series) 1807, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    10. Deiana, C. & Giua, L. & Nisticò, R., 2020. "Opium Price Shocks and Prescription Opioids in the US," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 20/23, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. Daniele, Gianmarco & Le Moglie, Marco & Masera, Federico, 2023. "Pains, guns and moves: The effect of the U.S. opioid epidemic on Mexican migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    12. Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Opioid epidemics," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    13. Hannes Schwandt & Till M. von Wachter, 2020. "Socio-Economic Decline and Death: The Life-Cycle Impacts of Recessions for Labor Market Entrants," NBER Working Papers 26638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality

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