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Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?

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  • Kasey Buckles
  • Daniel Hungerman
  • Steven Lugauer

Abstract

Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. In this paper we do something else: using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions begins to fall several quarters prior to economic decline. Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Kasey Buckles & Daniel Hungerman & Steven Lugauer, 2018. "Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?," NBER Working Papers 24355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24355
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    3. Dmitriy Gorskiy, 2023. "The maternity capital and probability of second birth in Russia: Explaining the last 10 Years' fertility patterns," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 30, Stata Users Group.
    4. Rangel, Marcos & Nobles, Jenna & Hamoudi, Amar, 2019. "Brazil's Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior," SocArXiv fu8bp, Center for Open Science.
    5. Fatih Karahan & Benjamin Pugsley & Aysegül Sahin, 2019. "Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit," Working Papers 19-21, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Wei-hsin Yu & Shengwei Sun, 2018. "Fertility responses to individual and contextual unemployment: Differences by socioeconomic background," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(35), pages 927-962.
    7. Martha J. Bailey & Lea Bart & Vanessa Wanner Lang, 2022. "The Missing Baby Bust: The Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Contraceptive Use, Pregnancy, and Childbirth Among Low-Income Women," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1549-1569, August.
    8. Schwandt, Hannes & von Wachter, Till, 2020. "Socioeconomic Decline and Death: Midlife Impacts of Graduating in a Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 14325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Gordon B. Dahl & Runjing Lu & William Mullins, 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 473-490, December.
    10. Daniele Vignoli & Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Elena Pirani & Alessandra Minello, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: Narratives of the Future," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    11. Héctor Bellido & Miriam Marcén, 2019. "Fertility and the business cycle: the European case," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1289-1319, December.
    12. Libertad González Luna & Luis Guirola & Blanca Zapater, 2023. "Partisan Abortions," Economics Working Papers 1859, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    13. Giray Gozgor & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Peter Rangazas, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 373-399.
    14. Brehm, Margaret E. & Brehm, Paul A., 2022. "Drill, baby, drill: Natural resource shocks and fertility in Indonesia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Fernanda Marquez-Padilla & Biani Saavedra, 2022. "The unintended effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and stay-at-home orders on abortions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 269-305, January.
    16. Nathan Seltzer, 2019. "Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1463-1493, August.
    17. Verdickt, Gertjan, 2020. "Is fertility a leading indicator for stock returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    18. Bullinger, Lindsey Rose, 2019. "The Effect of Paid Family Leave on Infant and Parental Health in the United States," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 101-116.
    19. Cumming, Fergus & Dettling, Lisa, 2019. "Monetary policy and birth rates: the effect of mortgage rate pass-through on fertility," Bank of England working papers 835, Bank of England.
    20. Myers, Caitlin Knowles, 2021. "Cooling off or Burdened? The Effects of Mandatory Waiting Periods on Abortions and Births," IZA Discussion Papers 14434, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Kim, Jeong Ho (John) & Lee, Heebum & Lee, Sung Kwan, 2022. "Do credit supply shocks affect fertility choices?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    22. Hannes Schwandt & Till M. von Wachter, 2020. "Socio-Economic Decline and Death: The Life-Cycle Impacts of Recessions for Labor Market Entrants," NBER Working Papers 26638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Darya Antonova & Yulia Vymyatnina, 2018. "Inflation and Population Age Structure: The Case of Emerging Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 3-25, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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