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Growth and Childbearing in the Short- and Long-Run

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  • Tom Vogl
  • Shoumitro Chatterjee

Abstract

Despite being key to theories of economic growth and the demographic transition, evidence on how fertility responds to aggregate income change is mixed. We analyze economic growth and fertility change in the developing world over six decades, using data on 2.3 million women from 255 surveys in 81 countries. We find that fertility responds differently to fluctuations and long-run growth, and the nature of these responses varies over the lifecycle. Fertility is procyclical, falling during recessions, but also declines and delays with long-run growth. Lifetime fertility is affected by fluctuations near the end of the reproductive period but not those at prime reproductive age. Our results are consistent with models linking demography, human capital, and long-run growth, extended to include a lifecycle with liquidity constraints.

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  • Tom Vogl & Shoumitro Chatterjee, 2018. "Growth and Childbearing in the Short- and Long-Run," Working Papers id:12766, eSocialSciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:12766
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    2. Aaronson, Daniel & Dehejia, Rajeev & Jordon, Andrew & Pop-Eleches, Cristian & Samii, Cyrus & Schultze, Karl, 2017. "The Effect of Fertility on Mothers’ Labor Supply over the Last Two Centuries," MPRA Paper 76768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Aparicio, Ainoa & González, Libertad & Vall Castelló, Judit, 2020. "Newborn health and the business cycle: The role of birth order," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    4. Kasey Buckles & Daniel Hungerman & Steven Lugauer, 2021. "Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 541-565.
    5. Walker Hanlon, 2018. "London fog: A century of pollution and mortality, 1866-1965," Working Papers 18019, Economic History Society.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomics; fertility; growth; lifecycle; human capital; demography;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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