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Growth and Childbearing in the Short- and Long-Run

Author

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  • Tom Vogl
  • Shoumitro Chatterjee

Abstract

Despite being key to theories of economic growth and the demographic transition, evidence on how fertility responds to aggregate income change is mixed. We analyze economic growth and fertility change in the developing world over six decades, using data on 2.3 million women from 255 surveys in 81 countries. We find that fertility responds differently to fluctuations and long-run growth, and the nature of these responses varies over the lifecycle. Fertility is procyclical, falling during recessions, but also declines and delays with long-run growth. Lifetime fertility is affected by fluctuations near the end of the reproductive period but not those at prime reproductive age. Our results are consistent with models linking demography, human capital, and long-run growth, extended to include a lifecycle with liquidity constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Vogl & Shoumitro Chatterjee, 2018. "Growth and Childbearing in the Short- and Long-Run," Working Papers id:12766, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:12766
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    Cited by:

    1. Zuleika Ferre & Patricia Triunfo & José-Ignacio Antón, 2024. "The short- and long-term determinants of fertility in Uruguay," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(10), pages 267-322.
    2. Aparicio, Ainoa & González, Libertad & Vall Castelló, Judit, 2020. "Newborn health and the business cycle: The role of birth order," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    3. Kasey Buckles & Daniel Hungerman & Steven Lugauer, 2021. "Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 541-565.
    4. W. Walker Hanlon, 2024. "London Fog: A Century of Pollution and Mortality, 1866–1965," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 910-923, July.
    5. Datt, Gaurav & Maitra, Pushkar & Menon, Nidhiya & Ray, Ranjan & Dey, Sagnik & Chowdhury, Sourangsu, 2020. "Impact of Pollution from Coal on the Anemic Status of Children and Women: Evidence from India," IZA Discussion Papers 13522, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Daniel Aaronson & Rajeev Dehejia & Andrew Jordan & Cristian Pop-Eleches & Cyrus Samii & Karl Schulze, 2021. "The Effect of Fertility on Mothers’ Labor Supply over the Last Two Centuries [Semiparametric instrumental variables estimation of treatment response models]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 1-32.
    7. Lidan Yang & Jiahong Guo & Shixiong Cao, 2024. "What structural factors have held back China's birth rate?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 565-578, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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