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The short- and long-term determinants of fertility in Uruguay

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  • Zuleika Ferre
  • Patricia Triunfo
  • Jos'e-Ignacio Ant'on

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of fertility among women at different stages of their reproductive lives in Uruguay. To this end, we employ time series analysis methods based on data from 1968 to 2021 and panel data techniques based on department-level statistical information from 1984 to 2019. The results of our first econometric exercise indicate a cointegration relationship between fertility and economic performance, education and infant mortality, with differences observed by reproductive stage. We find a negative relationship between income and fertility for women aged 20-29 that persists for women aged 30 and over. This result suggests that having children is perceived as an opportunity cost for women in this age group. We also observe a negative relationship between education and adolescent fertility, which has implications for the design of public policies. A panel data analysis with econometric techniques allowing us to control for unobserved heterogeneity confirms that income is a relevant factor for all groups of women and reinforces the crucial role of education in reducing teenage fertility. We also identify a negative correlation between fertility and employment rates for women aged 30 and above. We outline some possible explanations for these findings in the context of work-life balance issues and argue for the importance of implementing social policies to address them.

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  • Zuleika Ferre & Patricia Triunfo & Jos'e-Ignacio Ant'on, 2023. "The short- and long-term determinants of fertility in Uruguay," Papers 2304.00539, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2304.00539
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    3. Jason M. Fletcher & Barbara L. Wolfe, 2009. "Education and Labor Market Consequences of Teenage Childbearing: Evidence Using the Timing of Pregnancy Outcomes and Community Fixed Effects," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    4. Harry A. Sackey, 2005. "Female labour force participation in Ghana: The effects of education," Working Papers 150, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    5. Vavrus, Frances & Larsen, Ulla, 2003. "Girls' Education and Fertility Transitions: An Analysis of Recent Trends in Tanzania and Uganda," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 945-975, July.
    6. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    7. José‐Ignacio Antón & Zuleika Ferre & Patricia Triunfo, 2018. "The impact of the legalisation of abortion on birth outcomes in Uruguay," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1103-1119, July.
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