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The Emergence of Procyclical Fertility: The Role of Breadwinner Women

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  • Coskun, Sena
  • Dalgic, Husnu

Abstract

Fertility in the US exhibits an increasingly more procyclical pattern. We argue that women's breadwinner status is behind procyclical and lower fertility: (i) women's relative income in the family has increased over time; and (ii) women are more likely to work in relatively stable and countercyclical industries whereas men tend to work in volatile and procyclical industries. This creates a countercyclical gender income gap as women become breadwinners in recessions, producing an insurance eect of women's income. Our quantitative framework shows that rising breadwinner status of women can explain both the emergence of procyclical fertility and the decline in fertility rate in the second half of the 20th century.

Suggested Citation

  • Coskun, Sena & Dalgic, Husnu, 2022. "The Emergence of Procyclical Fertility: The Role of Breadwinner Women," CEPR Discussion Papers 17316, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17316
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    2. Alena Bicakova & Guido Matias Cortes & Kelly Foley & Jacopo Mazza & Peter McHenry, 2025. "Unpacking the Countercyclicality of Post-Secondary Enrollment in the United States," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp795, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    3. Sen Coskun & Husnu Dalgic & Yasemin Ozdemir, 2025. "Navigating Motherhood: Endogenous Penalties and Career Choice," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_722, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    4. Luca Pensieroso & Alessandro Sommacal & Gaia Spolverini, 2025. "Intergenerational Coresidence and Fertility during the American Demographic Transition: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 08/2025, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    5. Nezih Guner & Yuliya Kulikova & Arnau Valladares-Esteban, 2025. "Does the Added Worker Effect Matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 56, April.
    6. Nezih Guner & Ezgi Kaya & Virginia Sánchez‐Marcos, 2024. "Labor Market Institutions And Fertility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1551-1587, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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