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Unpacking the Countercyclicality of Post-Secondary Enrollment in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Alena Bicakova
  • Guido Matias Cortes
  • Kelly Foley
  • Jacopo Mazza
  • Peter McHenry

Abstract

Using data from the Current Population Survey’s Education Supplement for 1977-2023, we explore two important, yet understudied facets of the pattern of countercyclical post-secondary education (PSE) enrollment in the U.S. First, we show that economic downturns are associated with higher enrollment probabilities at both 2- and 4-year colleges among young men, but only at 2-year institutions among young women. Second, we show that the overall increase in enrollment propensities during downturns is primarily driven by persistence (i.e., changes in enrollment among individuals with prior PSE participation), rather than matriculation (i.e., new enrollments). However, higher unemployment rates increase matriculation probabilities at 2-year colleges among 18-year-old men and women, and at 4-year colleges among individuals in their early 20s. Our findings improve our understanding of the dimensions along which aggregate economic fluctuations induce changes in human capital acquisition.

Suggested Citation

  • Alena Bicakova & Guido Matias Cortes & Kelly Foley & Jacopo Mazza & Peter McHenry, 2025. "Unpacking the Countercyclicality of Post-Secondary Enrollment in the United States," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp795, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp795
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    College Enrollment; Business Cycles; 2- and 4-Year Institutions; Persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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