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The Effect of Local Labor Market Downturns on Postsecondary Enrollment and Program Choice

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  • Andrew Foote

    (Center for Economic Studies U.S. Census Bureau Suitland, MD 20746)

  • Michel Grosz

    (Bureau of Economics Federal Trade Commission Washington, DC 20580)

Abstract

We examine how workers invest in human capital following unanticipated local labor market downturns. We find that, on average, two-year college enrollment increases by three students within three years for every one hundred workers laid off. This rise in enrollment accounts for half the observed increase in labor force nonparticipation following mass layoffs. Completions in career-technical programs also increase, especially in short-term certificates, but vary by field of study. We find the effect on completions is strongest in fields of study with larger earnings returns.

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  • Andrew Foote & Michel Grosz, 2020. "The Effect of Local Labor Market Downturns on Postsecondary Enrollment and Program Choice," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 15(4), pages 593-622, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:edfpol:v:15:y:2020:i:4:p:593-622
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    2. Lee, Maxine J., 2021. "The effect of import competition on educational attainment at the postsecondary level: Evidence from NAFTA," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Eduardo Laguna-Muggenburg & Monica Bhole & Michael Meaney, 2021. "Understanding Factors that Influence Upskilling," Papers 2103.12193, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    4. Chang Hyung Lee, 2020. "Minimum Wage Policy and Community College Enrollment Patterns," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 73(1), pages 178-210, January.
    5. Junghee Choi, 2024. "Performance-Based Funding and Certificates at Public Four-Year Institutions," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 65(6), pages 1065-1084, September.
    6. Gustavo Yamada & Oswaldo Molina & Daniel Velásquez, 2018. "Mining and Human Capital Accumulation: the Role of the Return to Education," Working Papers 135, Peruvian Economic Association.

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